What are the key technical levels through the NZ employment numbers?

• Unemployment rate 4.4% versus 4.5% last quarter
• Employment change quarter on quarter 0.6% versus 0.5%
• Employment change year on year 3.3% versus 3.7%
• Participation rates, 71% versus 71% last quarter
• Private wages including overtime 0.5% versus 0.4%
• Private wages ex overtime 0.4% versus 0.4%
• Average hourly earnings QoQ 0.5% versus 0.8%

Technically, the price will be going into the numbers trading near the lowest level since December 21. The low yesterday reached 0.6989. We are currently trading a little higher at 0.7003.  

With the price near a low, what would help to turn the bias around technically. 

Looking at the daily chart above, the price fall yesterday moved below the 61.8% of the move up from the November 2017 low. That level comes in at 0.70306 and it will be a level that if broken on a stronger number should see more upside potential (see daily chart above).   

On Monday, the price stalled against that level. Yesterday, the price fell below that level and stayed below. You can see that more clearly on the hourly chart below.   

Staying on that hourly chart (see below), the 38.2% of the last leg down from Friday’s high comes in near the 0.7030 level, close enough to the 61.8% on the daily chart.  That increases that levels importance.  A move above would be more bullish and should see more upside momentum. 

Although 0.7030 area is a bias changer, on a more bullish report the key level to get above (and stay above) is the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below) at 0.70519.

Looking at the hourly chart, the price moved above that MA on Friday and Monday, but only for a limited time period (and with limited momentum).  So keep that level in mind as well on a more bullish number.

On the downside, the targets come against the swing levels from November and December 2017. The November swing highs reached 0.6979 and then 0.6944. The December swing low reached 0.6951 (the 0.69446-51 is the yellow area in the daily chart above)  

Move below those levels and traders will be starting to target the lows from November at 0.67779.  

SUMMARY: The risk is increased into the data for the NZDUSD. The sellers are more in control in the pair.  The pair has been down 10 of 11 days and most recently dipped below the 50% and the 61.8%. Bears are winning. 

However, if the number comes out better than expectations, there can be a snap back rally.   The close levels to get above would be the 0.7030 and then the 100 hour MA at 0.7051.  Get above, and the sellers should turn to buyers, and we could see more upside corrrective potential. 

On a weaker number, and swing lows and the November (2017) low will be eyed.  

Let the number print and if off expectations, look for the breaks and momentum in the direction of the breaks.