Weekly Focus: Business Cycle Weaker as Trade Tensions Continue

Market movers ahead

• We look for US Q1 GDP to be around 2.0% q/q annualised.
• Euro Flash PMI and German ifo business confidence for April will indicate whether the euro area cycle is weakening further. We expect another decline.
• The ECB meeting on Thursday should be relatively uneventful.
• Trade war tensions will continue to be in focus. We are still waiting for Donald Trump’s announcement of details on another USD100bn worth of Chinese imports subject to tariffs.
• In the Scandi area, focus turns to the Riksbank meeting on Thursday and Norwegian unemployment.

Global macro and market themes

• We look for the global business cycle to head lower.
• We have changed our ECB call and now look for the first hike in Q4 19 but believe it will be 20bp instead of 10bp.
• Risk sentiment up and yields higher on hawkish Fed and higher commodity prices.

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