Below the December 2017 high
Last week, the USDCHF tried to extend above the Oct/Nov 2017 highs. The pair traded above the high at 1.0038 on 4 separate days going back to May 7th, but could not break and run higher. The high could only get to 1.0056.
On Friday, the buyers seemed to give up> The high on Friday could only get to 1.0039 (a pip higher than the Oct/Nov high) and backed off. Today the price is lower again and trades back below the December 2017 high at 0.9977. The price is now down for the 3rd straight day.
Given the run up in the pair since the 2018 low in February at 0.91865, traders are looking for that turning point. The technicals tell the story. Failing on the break higher. Falling below the December swing high are each bearish clues.
Drilling to the hourly chart below, there are some other bearish clues.
- The price fell below trend line and the 100 hour MA (blue line) on Friday and ran lower.
- The close Friday was around the 200 hour MA (green line).
- Today, the price stayed below that 200 hour MA and has moved lower
The low price today did run into a target on the hourly at the 0.99547 area. A downward sloping trend line and low from May 3rd comes in at that level. The fall has stalled. The price has bounced off the low.
IF the sellers can keep the pressure on, that level will need to be broken and the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour would need to be tested.
What might hurt the selling today?
Looking at the 5-minute chart below, the price rebound has retraced 38.2% of the day’s trading range at 0.99756. The 50% and the falling 100 hour MA are around the 0.99814 area. If the price on the correction can stay below that level, the sellers are still more in control. A move above and they lose some of their momentum and control.