USDCAD reverses after stall at 38.2% and MA resistance

The 100 bar MA on the 4-hour has done a good job of stalling rallies over the last 5 trading days

The USDCAD has reversed earlier gains after testing the 38.2% of the move down from the March 19th high and the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart. That MA has done a good job of stalling rallies in the USDCAD over the last 5 trading days (see blue circles).  

The price has just moved back below the 100 hour MA at 1.2880. The price has traded above and below that MA line over the last 24 hours or so (including a few times today).  Can the price stay below (close risk for shorts).  

Overall, the price is in a range over the last 5 days with the lows at 1.28137 and 1.2824 and highs near the MA and 38.2% line.  We are near the middle of that range. So, yes we are more bearish but we also are in a range.  

Nevertheless, that range will be broken at some point, and the recent price action is putting the sellers more in control. 

UPDATE: Headlines cutting across now from Canada’s chief NAFTA negotiator Steve Verheul: