Kudlow says “Good progress on recalibrating NAFTA”
The BOC survey results and positive comments on NAFTA from the White House’s Kudlow has the USDCAD trading to new session lows (higher CAD).
The pair just dipped below the low from Friday at 1.2729. On Friday, the employment report from Canada was stronger with total employment increasing by 32,000 in March, driven by full-time gains.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, last week the price stalled near the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart (blue line) and then fell below the 200 bar MA on the same chart (green line) . That MA was retested midweek and wandered back lower.
Today, the price did move higher in earlier trading, and in the process retested a swing area in the 1.2814-24 area. The price turned around and is reversing the pair back into the negative for the day now..
Taking a broader look at the at the daily chart below, the pair is focused on the 100 day MA at 1.2692. The 50% of the move up from the January low comes in at 1.2685. That area is a strong target and magnate for the price now. I would expect the market to stall on the first look.
However, with NAFTA talks turning around (and Pres. Trump and his team talking more positively), that takes a lot of the negative out of the loonie. We are getting back to the midpoint of the range (and 100 day MA) and having a stall at the level seems like a good idea. However, if there is a break, look for the dip buyers to exit and the 200 day MA (green line at 1.2634) to be target.