Latest data released by ONS – 20 March 2018
- Prior +0.1% m/m
- PPI output NSA +2.6% vs +2.7% y/y expected
- Prior +2.8% y/y
- PPI input NSA -1.1% vs -0.9% m/m expected
- PPI input NSA +3.4% vs +3.8% y/y expected
- PPI output core NSA +0.2% vs +0.2% m/m expected
- PPI output core NSA +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y expected
- House price index (Dec) +4.9% vs +5.0% y/y expected
Soft figures all around compared to expectations, as well as compared to prior figures as well.
Sterling not too sure what to make of the data though so far. The key reading was core inflation and it came in below than expected, meaning lesser strain on consumers but does that mean it eases some pressure on the BOE to not hike rates? But improved consumption contributes to an improved economy, and that will also give the BOE a reason to hike.
Initial reaction was a lower move before climbing back up to 1.4044 now for cable.
Anyway, the declining trend in output prices go in tandem with declining inflation in the UK. That should be taken as a positive sign for consumers. But this is only the first half of the equation. Wages data are out tomorrow, and if real wage growth also shrinks, it pretty much counters the effects of declining inflationary pressures.