Too early for a preview of the RBNZ meeting? Nah …

Too early for a preview of the RBNZ meeting? Nah …

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand Official Cash Rate (OCR) decision announcement is due Thursday

  • But …. it’ll be Wednesday 19 March 2018 at 2000 GMT

Via ASB, summary:

We expect the RBNZ will leave the OCR unchanged at 1.75% at the upcoming OCR Review.

  • The economic outlook has not changed materially from 6 weeks ago when the RBNZ released its February Monetary Policy Statement.

We do not expect any change in the RBNZ’s assessment of risks (numerous, but broadly balanced) and guidance on monetary policy (accommodative for a considerable period).

This OCR review is likely to be overshadowed by market perceptions around the incoming Governor Adrian Orr, and details of the new Policy Targets agreement once it’s released (possibly later next week).

We continue to expect the RBNZ will not hike the OCR until the second half of 2019.

  • Furthermore, we believe the risk of an OCR cut has lifted in recent months given the unexpectedly low Q1 inflation outcome and near-term downside risks to inflation.

ps. Its also Federal Open Market Committee week … 

and Bank of England week …

Of course, though, most attention will be on the RBZNZ (I’m kidding) 😉

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