Bias swinging back and forth pre-stock opening
The USDJPY has swung higher and lower in trading today. The swings have taken the price below and above and back below the 107.00 area. That level has been (roughly) a dividing line for bulls/bears.
The last move below that line (see hourly chart above), has also moved below a trend line. The targets below?
- The 100 hour MA at 106.878. The price moved back above that MA on Wednesday last week after a brief dip
- The 38.2% of the move up from the April 2nd low comes in at 106.785. The low on Friday stalled at 106.77. The low in the Asian session today stalled at 106.79.
Sellers are trying to make a play in the early NY session (seeing general dollar selling). The move is despite an expected rise in US stocks at the opening and higher rates too. So although lower, tread lightly.
Looking at the daily chart, the price also has the underside of the broken trend line at 106.69. That line was broken on Thursday and tested and stayed above on Friday.
There is a little bit of something for bulls and bears. The price is below the 107.00 area and a trend line on the hourly. However, the lows from Friday and today remain above the 100 hour MA, 28.2% and a broken trend line on the daily. As a result, traders can jump on their favorite side, with risk defined, but be flexible too as the price action is not really convincing….so far.