Pair moved to lowest level since March 1, but recovered after US data
Prior to the trade and claims data at 8:30 AM ET, the EURUSD felll below the 1.2251-60 area which is the home to a number of swing lows (see blue circles).
Yes, there was a break back on March 20 and into March 21, but that failed. This break is also at risk at failing as the US data from claims and trade was less than steller. We currently trade in that yellow area at 1.2257.
If the price can get and stay below the yellow area, the sellers will still have the upper hand. The post data high did get to 1.2262, but is currently trying to get back below the lower extreme. A move back above the 1.2260 level will likely discourage the sellers now. That will likely be stops for shorts (give or take).
On the downside, the low from March at 1.22387 will now need to be broken to worry the longs and give the sellers more confidence.