What do the charts tell us? Can the pair break out?
The EURUSD remained confined in a narrow trading range for the last two weeks. What do the charts tell us technically as we prepare for the new week.
Of course the strike on Syria will have some sort of reaction on the opening. Does it kick the pair out of the trading range? Let’s just say it is hard to say at this point. Nevertheless, if you know the technical road map, you can plan for how the market reacts and what it means for the technical bias.
The key takeaways from the EURUSD technicals are:
- The last two weeks trading ranges are 131 pips and 135 pips. Those are the two lowest ranges in 2018 and very narrow. When the market non-trends, you look for a trend. My eyes are open for clues of a break and run. You should too.
On the downside, some key targets include:
- 1.2300-056: The Tuesday and Wednesday lows this week AND the 50% of the move up from the April 6th lows/the 200 hour MA are also in that range (see hourly chart below).
- 1.22387. That was the low from March (if you don’t include March 1)
- A trend line on the daily comes in at 1.2222 and moving higher each day.
- The 100 day MA has moved up to 1.21746 (and moving higher). The price has not traded below the 100 day MA since December 19th.
- The 3 month lows are defined at 1.2153-64.
If the price is to trend and break lower, those are targets to get to and through.
On a more bullish run, the levels of importance to me come in at:
- 1.2342. 100 hour MA (blue line on the hourly chart below)
- 1.23542. That is the 50% of the 3 month trading range (see daily chart).
- 1.24016. The 61.8% of the 3 month range. The high this week stalled at 1.2395 just short of that level.
- 1.2433 (and moving lower). That is the topside trend line.
- 1.24456. Swing highs from March 7th and March 8th.
- 1.2475 is the high from March
- 1.2522, 1.25366 and 1.2555 are the swing highs in 2018.
When the market non-trends, you can have a bias but you should also be humble enough to understand the pair can run and squeeze longs or shorts. So listen to the price action because it can start to trend.