As signaled in my previous reports, the USDTRY pair regained its previous high at 3.9814 and surged through psychological 4.00 barrier into uncharted territory, hitting new record high at 4.0359 on Friday.
There were several factors that prompted lira’s most recent bearish acceleration, which signals that the fall is not over and weakness could extend.
Failure of CBRT to react on rising inflation, with recent rate hike seen as rather symbolic action and the central bank being unable for more significant action with only $90 bln reserves, along with widening Turkey’s current account deficit and higher US interest rates, marking the key factors that brought lira into current position.
The pair is on track to extend rally as negative sentiment around lira has worsened. Break above psychological 4.00 barrier is another negative signal which could drive the pair higher.
Today’s rally approached initial target at 4.0442 (Fibo 123.6% projection of the bull-leg from 3.7153 (25 Jan trough), break of which would expose 4.0830 (Fibo 138.2% projection) and psychological 4.10 barrier in extension.
Corrective easing could be seen as positioning for fresh rally and should be ideally contained above 3.9520 (19/20 Mar highs).
Res: 3.9814; 4.0000; 4.0359; 4.0442
Sup: 3.9520; 3.9363; 3.9186; 3.9097