Technical analysis of EUR/USD – “uptrend is being eroded” (target level set)

A note via Commerzbank with a chart of the euro against the US dollar arguing for a top and then downtrend 

Commerz note: We maintain our view that EUR/USD should head lower

• the 2017 -2018 uptrend at 1.2256 is being eroded

EUR/USD continues to top

• has recently reversed from the 38.2% retracement at 1.2517 (of the move down from 2008)
• It has also reversed just ahead of the 2008- 2018 downtrend at 1.2655, and the 200 month ma at 1.2485, which reinforces resistance here
• In addition the weekly RSI has diverged and we have a TD perfected set up on the monthly chart
• A close below 1.2155 will complete a top (1.2155- 1.2556) which will target 1.1755 and the 1.1553 November 2017 low

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Do note this is based on a view of the monthly chart – i.e. pretty big picture. day traders might want to keep that in mind.