SA40 Cash Index
The downside breakout scenario on the South Africa 40 Cash Index has manifested, as marked with the red arrow on the chart. The bearish crossovers of the 20, 50 and 200 day simple moving averages (marked with the black arrow) reinforces a negative trend bias assumption. Traders not already committed to the downside breakout, might look to a rebound for short entry up until about the 50955 level. Should a rebound extend past 52100 (close above), it could be considered a stop level as we would need to reassess trend bias. 48400 is the initial downside target favoured from the breakout. A close below this level would call for 46950 as the next support target.
SA40 Cash Index (Previous)
The SA40 Cash Index has moved to close below the dotted trend line used as the trailing stop loss level, and we now consider a market neutral positioning. The loss of momentum in the upward trend highlights a broader range consolidation environment, with no clear trend bias in place. The outskirts of this range sees resistance at 53090 and support at 50239. The index price is trading more or less in the middle of this range, no man’s land. We are looking for a reversal or break, of support or resistance, before initiating new long or short positions. For now, we are waiting for the next opportunity to present itself. Should the range trade or breakout trade scenario manifest, we will update our view accordingly.