Reuters poll shows expectations are for a slower BOJ exit

Reuters poll of 41 economists

  • 38 say the Bank of Japan to start unwinding its stimulus steps if it decides to change policy
  • Japan FY2018 core CPI forecast +0.9 pct, FY2019 +0.9 pct excluding impacts from planned sales tax hike in Oct 2019 (vs +0.9 pct, +1.0 pct in April poll)
  • 16 economists expect BOJ will scale back stimulus policy in 2020 or later, 12 said 1st half of 2019, 4 say 2nd half of 2019 (vs 12, 11, 7 in the April poll)
  • Japan FY2018 GDP forecast +1.2 pct, FY2019 +0.8 pct (vs
    +1.3 pct, +0.8 pct in April poll)

A slower exit expected compared to last month’s polling – the BOJ still very much missing its inflation target. 

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