RBA’s Debelle says he does not see a strong case for a near term rate rise

Guy Debelle, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia  

and the full text is at that link 

Headlines via Reuters:

  • Board does not see “strong case” for near-term rate rise
  • If Australian economy continues to evolve as expected, higher rates likely at some point
  • Board view is holding cash rate steady would help reduce unemployment, increase inflation over time
  • Central forecast for Australian economy to grow a little faster in 2018, 2019 than last year
  • Important uncertainty relates to household balance sheets
  • Had been concerned our forecast may have been little optimistic, but now more confident in it
  • Recent data suggests wage growth has troughed
  • Sees signs of wage pressures emerging but they remain localised for now
  • See risks it may take lower unemployment rate than we currently expect to generate wage pressures
  • Sees slower credit growth due to tighter bank lending standards, sees no implication for consumption outlook
  • Says effect of higher money market rates “not been that large” for banks to date
  • Higher money market rates not a “consequential development” from a forecasting point of view
  • Money market rates have declined noticeably in last couple weeks, will continue to monitor
  • Global growth good, but no economy growing much above trend
  • Headwinds for global growth have abated, not clear they have yet switched to be tailwinds
  • Current tensions around trade policy a “significant risk” to global economy

His remarks are from his prepared text, and there is nothing there of surprise. AUD/USD barely moved. Dunno if there will be a Q&A to follow . If there is we can always hope it is more exciting (but please don’t hold your breath) 

Later in the week (Wednesday local time in Australia) we’ll get Q1 wage data and then the day after we get the April jobs report. 

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