RBA minutes responses coming in: “Hint of Increasing Uncertainty”

The RBA minutes of the April monetary policy meeting are here

The main thing that jumped out at me was the bank making clear their view could change. It always can, of course, but this time they said it explicitly. Cruious indeed I though.

And … Westpac response now is along the same lines. This in summary and bolding mine:

Reserve Bank Board Minutes emphasise Gradual Approach to Policy – Hint of Increasing Uncertainty.

  • Arguably of most interest was the inclusion of “in current circumstances, members agreed that is was more likely that the next move in the cash rate would be up rather than down”. Our analysis indicates that this is the first time in this cycle that the minutes have included that observation.


  • commentary around the labour market appears to be a little more reserved than we have seen in previous minutes
  • … on May 4 with the May Statement on Monetary Policy. It is most likely that the Bank will lower its growth forecast for 2018 from 3 ¼ per cent to 3 per cent.
  • Financial conditions have also tightened in the interest rate markets
  • Westpac continues to expect that rates will be on hold for the remainder of 2018 
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