Poll (via Reuters ) says USD to fall, EUR higher. Trade war impact limited.

But the latest Reuters poll forecast for the US dollar

  • greenback to weaken in a year
  • euro at 1.28
  • expectations were similar to predictions made in a March poll

More from commentary on the poll from Reuters

  • Strategists have held on to a weak dollar outlook in Reuters polls since the start of last year
  • “While the prospect of a trade war has leapt to the number one risk for global investors following China’s swift retaliation to U.S. tariffs, FX markets have taken on the role of a casual observer” said Viraj Patel, FX strategist at ING.
  • “This cold trade conflict will most likely need to heat up in order to spill over into the currency arena.”
  • “For weak dollar expectations to be credibly broken, either we need the U.S. data screaming out that the economic cycle will be much longer than anyone is currently anticipating, or we need to see the trade deficit narrow significantly,” 

(bolding mine)

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