Poll of economists: Higher expectations of recession, Fed to hike 2 more times this year

This the latest from Reuters polling 

  • Federal Reserve to raise rates two more times this year (same as May poll), twice in 2019 vs Fed dot plots’ three
  • Median 35% chance of US recession in next two years (vs. 31% in May poll)
  • Median 15% chance of US recession in next 12 months (same as May poll) 
  • US GDP to average 2.9 pct this year and 2.5 pct next (2.8, 2.5 pct in May poll)
  • US GDP growth annualized 3.7 pct in Q2 (3.0 pct in May poll); 2.9 pct in Q3 and 2.8 pct in Q4 (same as may)

Poll of over 110
economists taken June 19-25

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