Gold Price Forecast: Gold Outlook Mired by RSI Sell Signal

Gold Price Talking Points

The price of gold cleared the opening range for March as the Russia-Ukraine war sparks a flight to safety, but recent developments in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicate a near-term pullback in bullion as the oscillator pushes below 70 to reflect a textbook sell signal.

Technical Forecast for Gold Price: Neutral

The outlook for the price of gold remains constructive as the 50-Day SMA ($1863) exhibits a positive slope, but bullion appears to have reverses ahead of the record high ($2075) as it extends the series of lower highs and lows from the yearly high ($2070).

Source: Trading View

Lack of momentum to hold above the $2063 (61.8% expansion) region has pushed the price of gold back below the $1990 (78.6% retracement) area, with a move below the Fibonacci overlap around $1916 (38.2% expansion) to $1929 (23.6% retracement) bringing the monthly low ($1902) on the radar.

Failure to defend the opening range for March may push the price of gold toward $1876 (50% retracement), with a move below the 50-Day SMA ($1863) opening up the $1859 (23.6% retracement).

Need a close above the $2063 (61.8% expansion) region to bring the topside targets back on the radar, with a break above the record high ($2075) opening up the $2092 (161.8% expansion) area.

— Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong