Fundamental Analysis
US CPI Release Today: What to Expect and Market Reactions
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US CPI inflation data for February 2025 is being released today, and markets are closely watching due to recent increases in inflation expectations. Economists expect headline inflation to rise by 0.3% for the month, keeping the yearly rate at 2.9%. The article provides a table outlining potential market impacts based on different CPI scenarios on…
NZ Dollar Eyes US and New Zealand Inflation Data
The New Zealand dollar is in negative territory on Wednesday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5636 in the European session, down 0.31% on the day. US CPI expected to tick lower to 0.3% The markets are keeping a close eye on the January inflation report, which will be released later today. Headine inflation is expected to…
Crypto: No Growth Without Fear
Market picture The crypto market continues to bump along, pulling back 2.7% to $3.15 trillion after flirting with the $3.3 mark the day before. This week, the market is hovering near the lower boundary of the descending corridor. Technically, a rebound from these levels is more likely. However, the wiser approach is to wait, as…
How the European Union Could Counter US Tariffs
Retaliation If the EU reaches the stage where it can implement retaliatory tariffs, what might be included on the list? Impose tariffs on products primarily produced in US swing states, such as , bourbon, motorcycles, or . In June 2018, the EU responded to the US Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum with immediate…
Not Convinced that Higher Inflation Figure Will Trigger Sustained Further USD Gains
Markets Fed Chair Powell’s appearance before the Senate Banking Committee yesterday didn’t yield much clues on (changes in) monetary policy in the Trump 2.0 era. The Fed Chair understandably stuck to data dependency. After having reduced policy restriction in the second half of last year, a strong economy and labour market give the Fed ample…
Stock Market Could Be Positioning for a Hot CPI Report
Stocks were flat yesterday ahead of today's report. Forecasts call for a 0.3% increase in both core and headline CPI, with year-over-year gains of 2.9% for headline and 3.1% for core. Unlike last month, there have been no last-minute upward revisions. CPI Swaps Expiration Date Uses 3-Mo. Lag January swaps have remained relatively stable, trading…
Fed Remains Inclined to Cut Rates, But Is in No Hurry
After 100bp of rate cuts, Fed Chair Powell suggests policy remains restrictive – even if remains elevated they will merely “maintain” policy restraint for longer. This indicates an inclination to cut rates closer to neutral, but no change is likely before June Fed Signals Little Prospect of Any Further Rate Cuts Before Summer Much was…
Chinese Tech’s Big Return?
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony yesterday went smoothly. He said that the Fed’s ‘policy stance is now significantly less restrictive than it had been’, the economy remains strong and that they ‘do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance.’ That was in line with his previous remarks. Powell…
US: Small Business Optimism Index Cools to Start 2025
The NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index fell 2.3 points to 102.8 in January, disappointing market expectations for a smaller decline to 104.7. Seven out of ten subcomponents deteriorated on the month, with the remaining categories roughly unchanged. The largest declines came from the share of businesses planning to make capital expenditures (down 7 points to…
Australian Dollar Drifting after Mixed Confidence Data
The Australian dollar is showing little movement on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6279, up 0.05% on the day. Australian business confidence jumps, consumer confidence stagnant Australian confidence indicators were mixed on Tuesday. The Westpac consumer sentiment index climbed 0.1% in February to 92.2 points, which means a majority of the…