The ISM Services index stepped up in September, registering 54.9, up from 51.5 in August and well ahead of the 51.7 print expected. This is the third consecutive month of improvement and the strongest print since February 2023. Twelve industries of eighteen reported growth in September, up from ten in August. The strong headline print…

 Discussions about the size of the November Fed rate cut continue Mixed labour market data up to now with ADP surprising on the upside Friday’s data matters the most; non-farm payrolls seen rising by 140k Geopolitics boost demand for dollar, data could reverse this trend Fed rate cut discussions continue With the market trying to…

The recent sell-off of 18% in WTI crude oil since August has stalled. An increase in hostilities in the Middle East and impending fiscal stimulus measures from China are likely to trigger a medium-term trend change in oil prices. Technical factors suggest a further potential rebound in WTI crude oil towards the next medium-term resistance…

Market picture The crypto market lost another 1.44% of its capitalisation in 24 hours to $2.13 trillion. The pressure is due to the ongoing wave of dollar gains and declines in risk assets due to the medium-term impact of the Middle East conflict and short-term profit-taking ahead of the US jobs report. The Sentiment Index…

The NZD/USD pair continues its downward trend, dropping to 0.6240 in its third consecutive session of declines. This ongoing sell-off in the New Zealand dollar is driven by market expectations of an upcoming interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). New Zealand’s borrowing costs are currently at 5.25% per annum, with…

Summary The overall progress in reining in decades-high inflation should be on display with the September CPI report. We look for the headline to advance 0.1%, which would bring the year-over-year rate down to 2.3% and point to headline PCE rising 2.0%—directly on the FOMC’s target in what will be the last read on inflation…

Summary We have written extensively about the deterioration in the trade relationship between the U.S. and China, and how tensions between the two nations have rewired global trade patterns. Following the implementation of Trump-era tariffs, the U.S.-China trade relationship reached an inflection point, and as of the end of 2023, China’s trade surplus with the…

Danske Bankhttp://www.danskebank.com/danskeresearchThis publication has been prepared by Danske Markets for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or…

Markets Core bonds reversed the safe-haven triggered gains of Tuesday. US yields rose by 3.7 bps (2-yr) to 5.8 bps (30-yr) while German yields rose by 1.9 bps (2-yr) to 5.5 bps (30-yr). The US underperformance at the front end of the curve was linked to a decent ADP employment report (143k from 103k vs…