Fundamental Analysis

Possible Market Implications for Chinese Balloon

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The big story over the weekend, at least as far as social media was concerned, was the Chinese balloon. The US claims it contained spy equipment, China says it was a weather balloon that went off course. The incident has plenty of political fodder, and has heightened tensions between Washington and Beijing. The first policy…

Fourth-Quarter GDP Print to Ease Sterling Problems?

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Last week was dominated by the US, particularly the impressive data releases on Friday. Other regions could steal the limelight this week, particularly the UK where developments across the board are not encouraging. Friday’s fourth-quarter GDP figure could potentially offer some respite, but will this be enough for sterling to recover some of its recent…

Dollar Extends Rally

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The US dollar continued where it left off on Friday when it surged higher after the US jobs report came out much stronger than expected, catching many people by surprise. While the additional gains have been limited so far, the dollar’s recovery is likely to be the main focal point in the first few days…

Futures Decline on Rate Concerns & US – China Tensions

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US futures Dow futures -0.50% at 33740 S&P futures -0.75% at 4104 Nasdaq futures -1% at 12447 In Europe FTSE -0.71% at 7838 Dax -0.95% at 15369 Jobs data supports a more hawkish Fed US stocks are set for a weaker start on Monday, extending losses from the end of last week as investors continue…

US-China Relations Turn Sour Again

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After a period of some improvement in US-China relations since the Xi-Biden meeting in November, the relationship took yet another turn for the worse following the shoot-down of a Chinese ‘spy balloon’ over the Atlantic. Below is a short Q&A on what happened and how we see the implications. What actually happened? On Friday last…

'Soft Landing' Crowd One Big Step Closer to Winning the Battle

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WALL STREET WAS stunned Friday morning by the strength of the jobs market. While technology company layoffs have lately hijacked the fear-mongering media’s narrative, the truth is that the employment picture is quite strong. With a 517,000 gain in last month, along with ebbing wage growth, the “soft landing” crowd is one big step closer…

Worst Week for GBP/USD Since Truss’s September Budget

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Asian Indices: Australia’s ASX 200 index fell by -25.6 points (-0.34%) and currently trades at 7,532.50 Japan’s Nikkei 225 index has risen by 223.71 points (0.81%) and currently trades at 27,733.17 Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index has fallen by -500.22 points (-2.31%) and currently trades at 21,160.25 China’s A50 Index has fallen by -275.79 points…

Stocks and Bonds Down, Dollar Up

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Markets Friday was all about exceptionally strong US payrolls and a sharp rebound in the services ISM. The former showed a 517k job creation in January with details strong across the board. The unemployment rate fell to a 54-y low of 3.4% while the participation rate edged higher to 62.4%. Earnings rose 0.3% to 4.4%…

Market Dynamics Change at the Wake of the Monstrous NFP Beat

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US NFP printed 517’000 last Friday. More than half a million. It’s a monstrous gap with the 185’000 expected by analysts. And even if the seasonal factors may have affected the January report… 517’000 jobs, is quite a STRONG number for a monthly NFP report. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 3.4%. That’s the lowest…

Red Hot US Labour Market Report

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Market movers today After a very busy week, this week should be much slower, at least in terms of scheduled events and data releases. Today, we have a few data points out from the euro area, namely retail sales for December and Sentix investor confidence for February, and also December factory orders in Germany. Probably…