Forex News

Here is what could send the price of oil to $380 / barrel – JP Morgan on Russia revenge

Here is what could send the price of oil to $380 / barrel - JP Morgan on Russia revenge

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JP Morgan analysts outline potential retaliation by Russia if the G7 manage to put together a mechanism to cap the price of Russian oil: “The most obvious and likely risk with a price cap is that Russia might choose not to participate and instead retaliate by reducing exports." “It is likely that the government could…
Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Dollar and bonds go for a wild ride

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Dollar and bonds go for a wild ride

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Markets: Gold flat at $1806 US 10-year yields down 8.5 bps to 2.89% WTI crude oil up $2.51 to $108.29 S&P 500 up 1.1% JPY leads, AUD lags This was a holiday-thinned trade with Canada out and many US traders heading out early for the long weekend but it was also the start of a…
The big US dollar moves have now mostly unwound

The big US dollar moves have now mostly unwound

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There was a fierce bid for US dollars to start the month but it's now largely reversed.I could tie together a narrative around rates, Fed hikes and whatnot but I'm going to shrug here and put this on flows around the turn of the calendar.I don't know if that was European money scrambling for dollars…
You have two options

You have two options

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The market is navigating different outcomes and in the simplest terms, here's how it shapes up.1) High inflation with ongoing growth and Fed hikes above 4%This is the scenario the market grappled with for most of the year and the results speak for themselves. It was the worst H1 for the S&P 500 since 1970…
OPEC badly missed production quotas in June

OPEC badly missed production quotas in June

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OPEC production fell 120,000 barrels per day in June to 28.6 million barrels per day, according to a Bloomberg survey. Earlier, Reuters' survey estimated at 100,000 bpd decline. OPEC was supposed to increase production in the month but instead it declined. Saudis missed their quota by 213k bpd.There's a good chance that by announcing further…
Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 tracker falls deeper into negative territory

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 tracker falls deeper into negative territory

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We started the week at +0.2% in the Atlanta Fed's GDP tracker. After a series of economic data point disappointments, it's now at -2.1%. That's down from yesterday's reading of -1.0% and comes after today's data on manufacturing and construction spending.The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second…
Honda reports a sharp drop in June US auto sales, blames supply issues

Honda reports a sharp drop in June US auto sales, blames supply issues

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Honda sold 71,048 vehicles in the US in June, which is a sharp drop compared to last month (-53.6%) and a year ago(--55.4%).Everyone expected auto sales to slow after the frenzied pace of the pandemic but this is a almost a sudden stop. There are still shortages of parts and that's turning away prospective buyers.…
Baker Hughes US oil rig count 595 vs 594 prior

Baker Hughes US oil rig count 595 vs 594 prior

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Prior was 594 Gas rigs 154 vs 157 prior Rigs continue to rise but they're not back to 2019 levels yet and DUCs continue to be drawn down. The pace of drilling will have to step up from here. WTI  crude oil  Crude Oil Crude oil is the most popular tradable instrument in the energy…
Fed’s Daly: Want to get to around 3.1% Fed funds at year end

Fed's Daly: Want to get to around 3.1% Fed funds at year end

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"My own views on policy… are that we need to get to something like the neutral rate of interest by the end of the year, which in my judgment would be to around the 3.1% range of a nominal Fed funds rate.""And so what would unwind the need to do that? Well, if there were…
European equity close: Middling start to the new quarter

European equity close: Middling start to the new quarter

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Last quarter was rough for European stocks and there wasn't exactly a rush to buy into the new quarter: UK FTSE 100 -0.2% Stoxx 600 -0.1% German DAX +0.1% French CAC +0.1% Italy MIB +0.3% Spain IBEX +0.8% On the week: UK FTSE 100 -0.7% Stoxx 600 -1.45% German DAX -2.3% French CAC -2.3% Italy…