Euro May Fall if German Inflation Data Disappoints

Euro May Fall if German Inflation Data Disappoints

Talking Points:

  • Euro may fall as disappointing German CPI huts ECB outlook
  • Japanese Yen corrects higher after steep losses on Wednesday
  • NZ Dollar down following soft 15-year bond auction results

German CPI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline on-year inflation rate is expected to rise to 1.7 percent, marketing the first increase in four months and the highest reading since December 2017.

Broadly speaking, Eurozone economic news-flow has increasingly deteriorated relative to baseline forecasts in recent months. That might foreshadow a downside surprise. Indeed, PMI survey data put inflation at a three-month low. A disappointment might weigh on expected ECB tightening prospects, hurting the Euro.

The Japanese Yen corrected broadly higher in Asia Pacific trade after suffering deep losses against the spectrum of its G10 FX counterparts in the prior session. The New Zealand Dollar fell, which might have reflected the outcome of a 15-year bond auction.

Average yields came in at 3.14 percent, down from 3.34 percent when analogous paper was sold a month ago despite weaker demand (the bid-to-cover ratio eased to 2.41 from 3.18 previously). That might speak to ebbing appeal of NZD-denominated assets.

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Euro May Fall if German Inflation Data Disappoints

European Trading Session

Euro May Fall if German Inflation Data Disappoints

** All times listed in GMT. See the full economic calendar here.


— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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