Economists see slightly higher path of rates in latest WSJ survey

Highlights from the WSJ’s monthly survey of US economists

  • Economists on average see Fed funds rate at 2.25% at year end compared to 2.21% in Feb and 2.17% in Jan
  • About half of economists see 3 hikes and half see 4 hikes this year
  • The consensus was for another 2 hikes in 2019
  • Virtually every economist expected a hike next week
  • Economists see inflation rising to 2.1% in Q4 and leveling out from there
  • Long-run unemployment was seen at 4.3%, unchanged from the Jan survey
  • Long-run inflation was seen at 2.1% compared to 2.0% in January
  • Long-run Fed funds were seen at 3.03% compared to 2.85% in January

Overall, this should offer a good indication of the direction of Fed shifts in next week’s new set of forecasts. It also shows roughly the changes that are expected.

See the full report.

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