Data coming up in the US on Tuesday – previews of business conditions & retail sales

There is a load of US economic data on Tuesday 15 May 2018

1230GMT – Empire Manufacturing for May (Business Conditions)


  • We forecast 14.0 for the Empire State business conditions index for May. Businesses remained optimistic on balance in April but less so compared to earlier this year. Many business contacts for incoming surveys have indicated concerns over tariffs and risk of escalation in trade tensions. Although we think business momentum remains intact, driven by stable domestic and foreign demand, continued uncertainty over trade policies could dampen business sentiment further. 

1230GMT – April Retail Sales (advance)

  • expected +0.3% m/m, prior +0.6%
  • Excluding autos expected +0.5% m/m, prior +0.2%
  • Excluding autos and gas expected +0.4%, prior +0.3%

Nomure again:

  • Excluding sales of autos, food, gasoline and building materials, core (“control group”) retail sales likely rose a steady 0.3% m-o-m in April. Retail activity appears to have been steady despite colder-than-usual weather in some regions in April. Employment in the core retail sector rose steadily. Various consumer and business surveys point to continued momentum in business activity led by robust consumer demand. Among the non-core components, sales at gasoline stations likely rebounded strongly, reflecting changes in energy prices in the month. For sales at auto dealerships, we expect a sharp 0.7% decline as April vehicle sales data point to weaker vehicle purchases by consumers. For ex-autos retail sales, we expect a 0.4% m-o-m increase. Put together, we forecast a 0.2% m-o-m increase in total retail sales.

Also due:

1400GMT Business inventories & NAHB housing market index

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