China’s economy is ‘walking a tightrope’ as key data signals remain mixed

China’s economy is ‘walking a tightrope’ as key data signals remain mixed

The data deluge out of China today was a mixed bag. Retail sales and industrial production both beat expectations, but growth in fixed asset investment fell to a record low of 5.2% for the eight months to August. As Commsec senior economist Ryan Felsman highlighted, “China is Australia’s largest…

Trump said to want tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods despite talks

Trump said to want tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods despite talks

President Donald Trump wants tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods despite the U.S. attempt to restart talks on trade, according to reports Friday.

The president told aides to go ahead with tariffs, the reports said, citing four people familiar with the matter.

The U.S. and China have alrea…

San Francisco Fed names Mary Daly as president

San Francisco Fed names Mary Daly as president

The Federal Reserve of San Francisco on Friday named its head of research Mary Daly as its next president, succeeding John Williams, who departed in June to lead the New York Fed.

Daly takes the helm in San Francisco on October 1. Daly’s appointment was approved by the Fed’s Board of Governors in…

Russia surprises with a 25bp rate hike

Russia surprises with a 25bp rate hike

The key reasons for the CBR’s rate hike today included higher inflation risks based on the high degree of external uncertainty and its impact on financial markets. According to the CBR, a further rise in yields in developed markets, capital outflows from emerging markets and geopolitical risks could…

What Happened to the Eurodollar COT Model?

What Happened to the Eurodollar COT Model?

One of my favorite predictive models had me looking for a decent selloff in the summer of 2018, but the U.S. stock market decided not to participate. So what happened?

The model in this week’s chart contains data from the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) Report, published by the CFTC. This da…

Week Ahead – Inflation and flash PMI data to dominate; BoJ to leave policy unchanged

Week Ahead – Inflation and flash PMI data to dominate; BoJ to leave policy unchanged

Economic data will move to the fore next week with several countries reporting inflation, retail sales and flash PMIs. Canada and the United Kingdom will publish CPI and retail sales figures, while in the Eurozone, the focus will be on the flash PMI releases by IHS Markit. Second quarter GDP figures…

Time to ditch the US dollar

Time to ditch the US dollar

With a narrowing focus on the US midterm elections (6 November) and US politics – as well as fast-money investors holding substantial aggregate long USD positions – we look for the market narrative over the next few months to transition from ‘default to the dollar’ to ‘ditch the dollar’ for the…

Canada prepared to play deadline spoiler in NAFTA talks: source

Canada prepared to play deadline spoiler in NAFTA talks: source

In the face of mounting pressure to wrap up NAFTA negotiations by the end of the month, a senior source suggests Canada is comfortable with missing that deadline.

The source who spoke to CBC News on background, due to the sensitivity of the talks, said the external political pressure “is not a go…

A Financial Union for the Euro Area

A Financial Union for the Euro Area

Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon. It is a pleasure to be here.

As the European policy machinery kicks into action again after the summer break, I welcome this opportunity to share some thoughts.

The question put to me is how much more deepening of the economic and monetary union is needed….