Crude Oil Price Looks Lower on China Lockdown Fears Ahead of OPEC+. Where to for WTI?

Crude Oil, China, Covid-19, OPEC+, Contango, Backwardation, WTI, Brent – Talking Points

  • Crude oil prices are under pressure on global growth concerns
  • China’s economic fortunes are weighed by policy and disruptive restrictions
  • Futures markets might provide hints for WTI’s direction. Will WTI see a new low?

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Crude oil made a 1-year low overnight before recovering and finishing higher for the session. The WTI futures contract dipped below US$ 74 bbl while the Brent contract had a look below US$ 82 bbl.

Rising concerns for global growth undermined risk appetite to start the week. China’s continuing pursuit of its zero-case Covid-19 policy which requires widespread lockdowns, is seen as impeding an economic recovery there.

The policy has led to protests across several major cities in China. On Monday night, the police cracked down to prevent further demonstrations against the policy. It is being reported that authorities are checking citizens’ identification in and around the key protest sites.

The world’s second-largest economy is a massive importer of energy and the impact of a slowdown there could weigh on crude prices.

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OPEC+ will be meeting on Wednesday and there has been some speculation that they may consider cutting production further than previously flagged.

They have previously said that they plan to reduce output by 2 million barrels per day. The practical implementation of such an announcement might be difficult to achieve given that the cartel is unable to meet its current quota targets.

The Asian trading session has seen oil prices ease off again perhaps on the back of several speakers from the Federal Reserve. This included James Bullard, John Williams and Lael Brainard.

The main theme from those three board members was that the Fed had more work to do in their fight on inflation, inferring tighter monetary conditions going forward.

After the New York close, Thomas Barkin added to the hawkish chorus in an interview with Bloomberg.

Some clues for the move lower might have been in some of the underlying supply and demand dynamics. Last week saw both the WTI and Brent futures markets dip into contango.

Contango occurs when the contract closest to settlement is cheaper than the contract that is settling after the first one. It highlights a willingness by the market to take delivery later, rather than sooner.

WTI CRUDE OIL, BACKWARDATION/CONTANGO, OIL VOLATILITY

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Chart created in TradingView

— Written by Daniel McCarthy, Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @DanMcCathyFX on Twitter

US Dollar Soars as Dow Jones Sinks on Hawkish Fed Comments. DXY Ready to Reverse?

US Dollar, Dow Jones, China Lockdown Protests, Fedspeak – Asia Pacific Market Open

  • US Dollar soars, Dow Jones falls on Monday’s Wall Street session
  • Chinese lockdown protests and hawkish Fedspeak were key culprits
  • Is DXY Dollar Index setting up for reversal? APAC markets at risk

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Asia-Pacific Market Briefing – Risk Aversion Boosts the US Dollar

The US Dollar soared against most of its major counterparts on Monday, particularly outperforming the sentiment-linked Australian and New Zealand Dollars. Not surprisingly, this coincided with a general deterioration in risk appetite as Wall Street turned lower. The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 fell 1.4%, 1.5% and 1.41%, respectively.

Market mood deteriorated at the onset of Monday’s trading session in the wake of anti-lockdown protests around China. Last week, we also saw signs that lockdown liftings were running into trouble. If the country does intend on rolling with reversing the zero-Covid strategy, it could run the risk of a rapid spread in cases, opening the door to a rough reopening.

Meanwhile, during the Wall Street trading session, we saw a couple of Fed officials reiterate the central bank’s hawkish stance. Notably, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard noted that financial markets are ‘underestimating’ odds that the central bank may have to hike rates more quickly in 2023 to help curb inflation. This likely resulted in the selloff on Wall Street, boosting the haven-linked US Dollar.

US Dollar and S&P 500 on Monday

US Dollar and S&P 500 on Monday

Chart Created in TradingView

Tuesday’s Asia Pacific Trading Session – All Eyes on Risk Appetite

Tuesday’s Asia-Pacific trading session is lacking notable economic event risk. This is placing traders’ focus on general risk appetite. In that case, regional indices such as the Hang Seng Index and Nikkei 225 risk following in the footsteps of Wall Street. Such a further deterioration in market mood would likely bode well for the US Dollar, sending AUD/USD and NZD/USD lower.

US Dollar Technical Analysis

On the daily chart, the DXY Dollar Index is starting to show early signs of a potential bullish reversal. For starters, prices left behind a Doji candlestick that then saw upside follow-through over the past 24 hours. This is as prices tested the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and positive RSI divergence emerged. The latter shows fading downside momentum which can at times precede a turn higher. Further gains would place the focus on the 20-day SMA as well as the 107.99 inflection point.

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DXY Index Daily Chart

DXY Index Daily Chart

Chart Created in TradingView

— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Senior Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, follow him on Twitter:@ddubrovskyFX

Gold Bulls May Want to Watch US Rate Forecasts, Silver Traders Follow Gold

Gold, Dollar, Fed Rates and Silver Talking Points:

  • The Market Perspective: Gold Bearish Below 1,730
  • Gold dropped -0.7 percent, ending a tepid recovery effort while silver dropped -2.5 percent for its wort showing in six weeks
  • Interest rate speculation in the US may play a bigger role on the metals market this week than most other fundamental currents

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Though gold is often afforded a general ‘safe haven’ asset, its correlation to the S&P 500 (one of the more recognizable benchmarks for ‘risk’) is actually hovering around 0.86 on a 20-day rolling basis. Given the relationship is judged on a +1 to -1 range, that would insinuate a very strong and positive correlation. That is not to say it doesn’t don that fundamental cloak in different circumstances – it has in the past – but for right now, the guidance is to be found elsewhere. It would seem the more distinct motivation is coming from interest rate forecasting. Whether you chalk that up to gold’s lack of any yield as interest rates are rising or its generic pricing in US Dollar’s as a counterbalance, the correlation between the implied Fed Funds rate for June of 2023 enjoys a more significant (inverse) relationship. That said, it is likely that we are delivered a significant interest rate forecast update this week for the Fed via key data points like the PCE deflator on Thursday as well as Fed signaling before the official media blackout starts this coming weekend (two weekends before the rate decision itself on December 14th).

Chart of Gold Overlaid with 100 and 200-Day SMAs, Inverted Fed Forecast through June 2023 (Daily)

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Chart Created on Tradingview Platform

For the upcoming session, there are a few US-based data points that will carry serious weight if we are gauging the country’s economic potential. However, I’m looking at the fundamental backdrop with much more of an eye towards rate projections. Fed speak in particular has thus far picked up where it left off last week. A number of officials have made a concerted effort to warn the market that the path to a terminal rate seems to be higher than they had previous expected, while outspoken hawk James Bullard went so far as to suggest the market was underpricing the risk of a higher rate on Monday. Nevertheless, retail traders seem to be either be negligent or dubious of their signals. Fed Fund futures are little budged from last week and are still pricing in rate cuts in the back half of 2023 – something that even the dovish officials have reiterated they don’t believe will happen. In speculative positioning, we can see the skepticism play out with CFD interest to short gold’s bounce significantly reduced over the past week even though we have not made any higher highs after that November 15th peak.




of clients are net long.




of clients are net short.

Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 2% -8% -1%
Weekly 16% -43% -6%

Chart of Retail Gold CFD Trader Positioning at IG (Daily)

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Chart Created on DailyFX.com

As a close cousin of gold, the silver market is likely also taking its cues from its more expensive cousin. The metal took a significantly steeper -2.5 percent drop Monday in more than sympathy to GC. Generally, the 20-day and 60-day (equivalent to one and three trading months) correlation between silver and gold is presently significantly positive and strong. However, the longer-term relationship is still recovering from a significant swoon from the past month. Volatility in the underlying metals market likely has a lot to do with that waver in the correlation. The more active the underlying market, the more the fundamental nuances between these two markets will come to pass. In a risk-positive swing that seems to defy the safe haven relationship gold possess, speculative interests are likely no doubt stocked for the cheaper silver counterpart. Volatility for most major markets is facing serious fundamental risk this week, so it will pay to monitor this relationship if you follow these markets.

Chart of Silver Futures Overlaid with Gold and GVZ Gold Volatility with 20 and 60-day Correl (Daily)

image3.png

Chart Created on Tradingview Platform

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S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Tighten Ahead of a Busy Economic Calendar

Indices Talking Points:

  • It was a quiet Monday on the economic calendar despite it being Cyber Monday everywhere else, but the latter portion of this week’s docket carries considerable headline risk.
  • Chair Powell has a speech on Wednesday afternoon and then Thursday brings PCE data, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and then Friday brings Non-farm Payrolls for the month of November. Given the Fed’s focus on inflation, this will likely be highly-watched by market participants for clues towards that next move from the FOMC.
  • US equities pulled back to open the week but remain within the context of intermediate-term ranges.
  • The analysis contained in article relies on price action and chart formations. To learn more about price action or chart patterns, check out our DailyFX Education section.

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Stocks pulled back to start the week and if tracking from short-term charts, there were some trends to work with. Taking a step back, however, highlights the ranges that have been in-place for the past couple of weeks that haven’t yet given way. Although with the economic calendar for later this week, there’s likely some positioning ahead of the events taking place as traders tighten up risk ahead of the drivers.

Tomorrow brings Consumer Confidence out of the United States, and then Wednesday brings a speech from Chair Powell. Thursday morning brings PCE data which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and this is followed by Friday’s Non-farm Payrolls data. And given where we are with the Fed’s hiking cycle, with many looking on the horizon in an attempt of finding a slower pace of rate hikes, the intense focus on that data will likely remain.

The big question is whether we’ll hear a balanced message from Chair Powell or something more resembling the Jackson Hole outing, when the Chair was much more focused with a hawkish speech that reminded markets that the Fed wasn’t near complete in addressing inflation.

At this point, inflation remains brisk and far above target; but the Fed has already hiked a lot this year, starting in March, and it will likely take some time for that tightening to fully transmit through the economy. Accordingly, we’ve heard from multiple Fed speakers that have talked up the prospect of slowing rate hikes, which has been music to bulls’ ears. At this point, there’s a scant 32% probability of a 75 basis point hike at the December rate decision, and this has actually been a bullish factor over the past couple of weeks!

S&P 500

The S&P found resistance at the same 4050 level last week, which opens up the possibility of a double top formation. But, for that to come to fruition we’d need to see a breach of the neckline, which currently marks the very bottom of the support zone around the 3915-3928 area on the chart.

With approximately 135 points from the top to the neckline, this would provide a projected move down to below 3800 if it fills in. But, that 3915-3928 area is support until then, and a hold in that area keeps the door open for range continuation scenarios in the S&P 500.

On the resistance side of the coin, this is where the plot thickens. Just above the 4050 high is the 200 day moving average, and just above that is a confluent spot around 4100. And above that is a lot of other possible resistance so the road ahead is not a simple one for bulls, and this is likely playing into the lack of bullish behavior over the 4k psychological level of late.

S&P 500 Daily Chart

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Chart prepared by James Stanley; S&P 500 on Tradingview

Nasdaq 100

If we do see equity weakness themes making their way back by the end of the year, rates are likely going to be a push point, and that would also mean that the Nasdaq could have a greater level of vulnerability. And as a comparison, during the recent rally the tech-heavy index has lagged and even at this point, remains very near the lows while both the S&P and Dow have put in some topside stretch.

While the S&P 500 is holding resistance just below the 200 day moving average, but support above the 100 day moving average – the Nasdaq hasn’t scaled above either yet, further illustrating that lag.

Shorter-term, there’s a possible descending triangle formation in here with support taken from a neckline at around 11,528. The next support below that is a familiar Fibonacci level plotted at 11,294.

If that comes into play tomorrow, there may be an attractive bounce setup provided that support has confirmed at that level. But, if we get the risk aversion theme roaring back similar to what showed after Powell’s speech in August, it’s the 11,068 level that’s of interest as a push below that would mark a return of control to bears.

Nasdaq Daily Price Chart

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Chart prepared by James Stanley; Nasdaq 100 on Tradingview

Dow Breakout Pulls Back

The Dow has led the way-higher and it’s the only index of the three discussed in this article that has pushed over that prior August high. So it’s set a fresh six-month-high just last Friday, and opened this week with a fast reversal. This brings up a number of now nearby prior support levels. There’s a spot at 33,701 that’s a Fibonacci level of note, and below that is a prior price action resistance swing turned support, plotted at around 33,444.

For bears, they would likely want to see the 33k level traded through; although there may be greener pastures for equity bears elsewhere, such as the Nasdaq setup looked at above.

Dow Jones Daily Price Chart

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Chart prepared by James Stanley; Dow Jones on Tradingview

— Written by James Stanley, Senior Strategist, DailyFX.com & Head of DailyFX Education

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

DAX 40, FTSE 100, Dow Jones (DJI) Weighed Down by Risk Aversion

FTSE 100, DAX 40, Wall Street 30 Overview:

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Risk Aversion Returns to Markets as Protests in China Make Headlines

Major stock indices are trading lower after protests in China reduced demand for risk assets. With Dax, FTSE and Dow facing fundamental and technical headwinds, a surge in volatility could drive price action for the remainder of the week.

As the eight-week Dax 40 rally eases back from the 14500 psychological level, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020 – 2021 is holding as support at 14330. While the weekly chart illustrates a slowdown in bullish momentum, the 61.8% retracement of the 2022 move provides additional resistance at 14576.

Dax 40 Weekly Chart

Chart  Description automatically generated

Chart prepared by Tammy Da Costa using TradingView

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From a shorter timeframe, the daily chart shows a doji candle forming between 14500 and 14576, highlighting indecision. But, with US liquidity returning to markets, a current 0.78% daily decline has pushed Dax 40 back to prior historical resistance turned support at 1440.

Dax Daily Chart

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Chart prepared by Tammy Da Costa using TradingView

FTSE Technical Analysis

For the FTSE 100, prices have remained in a tight range throughout the day as prices trade between 7486 and 7490. With the rising trendline forming support at 7420, the 7400 and 7346 have provided historical support and resistance and may continue to do so in the short-term.

FTSE Daily Chart

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Chart prepared by Tammy Da Costa using TradingView

As recession fears and higher rates threatening growth forecasts, focus has shifted back to the economic calendar. With central banks focused on restoring price stabilities, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep a close eye on this week’s economic releases.

While Dow futures follow Dax in shedding approximately 0.79% for the day, GDP, Core PCE, NFP’s (non-farm payrolls) and developments in China are factors that could threaten the trajectory for equities this week.

Graphical user interface, application  Description automatically generated

DailyFX Economic Calendar

— Written by Tammy Da Costa, Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Tammy on Twitter: @Tams707

Can Germany’s Inflation Slow Down DAX’s Recovery?

Germany’s data release this week will highlight where the Eurozone and the DAX could be heading in the near-term future. Tomorrow’s CPI data for Germany will determine whether inflation has reached it’s peak and will reduce. This would allow the ECB to relax their hawkish stance. The market is currently priced in for another rate hike at best on 15th December or kept the same at 2%.

Should Germany’s data release worse than expected and inflation does not seem to be contained, we could expect a negative effect on the EURO and the DAX.

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DAX Daily timeframe – November 28th 2022

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Chart prepared on TradingView by Zorrays Junaid

Since September 28th 2022 low at 11862, the DAX has appreciated up 22.83% up to last week Thursday. As it slowly approaches 14710 resistance area, I can see that the DAX’s rally is slowly running out of steam. The clues are on the chart.

One of them being the price action is going sideways since November 14th 2022 where DAX only appreciated in price by 0.90%. Secondly, the RSI momentum indicator has formed a clear divergence on the daily timeframe. As price formed a new high on November 24th, the RSI was formed a lower high. Finally, although the MACD is hovering in the bullish territory, we can see the MACD moving averages have crossed over to the downside.

If the price action will decline in a corrective manner, we may see price reduce to at least 23.6% to 38.2% retracement which confluences with the next support zone which is between 14000 – 13500. We potentially can see a bounce off the support area, the 200 day Moving Average and the upper bound of the ascending channel.

I think a correction at minimum is inevitable considering how extended the bullish rally is. If another leg to the downside is on the cards, then we could possibly witness a complete rotation to the downside.

— Written by Zorrays Junaid, Contributor, DailyFX.com

Dollar Yen Outlook: USD/JPY Trades Lower as Dollar Gives Back Gains

USD/JPY Price Action:

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USD/JPY Trades Lower as China Protests Rattle Markets

USD/JPY is trading lower as lower US bond yields and an increase in risk aversion bolstered demand for the safe-haven Yen.

As China lockdowns remain a prominent driver of sentiment and for future growth prospects, the strict restrictions remain a hinderance to the global economy. After over 100 days of lockdowns in numerous cities within the world’s second largest economy, angry protestors have taken to the streets demanding an end to the Covid-zero policy.

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With the major currency pair recently climbing to its highest level since 1990, failure to hold above the October 21 high of 151.94 has driven USD/JPY lower. While Japan’s loose monetary policy has placed a heavy burden on the Yen since the beginning of the year, a deceleration in the Fed’s pace of tightening has limited further gains.

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis

Although the Japanese Yen still has a long way to go to erase this year’s losses, a 7% decline in November has allowed bears to push prices back below prior psychological support at 140.00. As the downtrend manages to gain traction, a new zone of technical support has formed around 138.00.

After a temporary break below the rising trendline from the May move, a long-wick candle is forming on the daily chart. With the body of the candle rising back above the bullish trendline, a firm barrier of support and resistance continues to form between 138 and 140.

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Chart  Description automatically generated

Chart prepared by Tammy Da Costa using TradingView

For bearish continuation to prevail, a hold below 138 could drive USD/JPY towards Fibonacci support of the 2022 move at 137.253. As this week’s economic docket highlights key US data points, weaker than expected data and increased selling pressure could open the door for further declines towards the 2002 high of 135.16.

— Written by Tammy Da Costa, Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Tammy on Twitter: @Tams707

British Pound Latest – GBP/USD Treads Water as US Data Deluge Nears

GBP/USD – Prices, Charts, and Analysis

  • US inflation and jobs data are released at the back end of the week.
  • The 200-day moving average is the next target for cable.

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Most Read: GBP/USD Breakout Nears as Highs and Lows Compress

The US dollar has given back all its early gains and is now trading in negative territory in early European turnover. The greenback rallied in Asian trade as Chinese covid-zero protests spread, but the strength of the Euro and the Japanese Yen has pushed the dollar index lower and near lows last seen around 10 weeks ago.

US Dollar (DXY) – Daily Chart

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This week the US data calendar throws up some high-importance releases with US consumer confidence (Tuesday @ 15:00 GMT), US Q2 GDP (Wednesday @ 13:30 GMT), core PCE (Thursday @ 13:30 GMT), ISM manufacturing PMI (Thursday @ 15:00 GMT), and US non-farm payrolls (Friday @ 13:30 GMT) the standouts. All these releases have the ability to move the US dollar markedly.

For all market-moving data releases and economic events see the DailyFX Calendar.

Cable is treading water around the 1.2100 level and consolidating its recent hefty gains. The pair has rallied by 16% since their recent 1.0350 low as UK PM steadies the ship after the last government’s disastrous short-lived tenure. The technical picture for cable remains mildly positive with the bullish pennant breakout helping the pair close in on the 200-day moving average, currently at 1.2175. The last time cable was above the 200-dma was back in September 2021. A confirmed break higher would leave 1.2293 as the next objective. Short-term support sits at 1.2025.

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GBP/USD Daily Price Chart – November 28, 2022

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All Charts via TradingView




of clients are net long.




of clients are net short.

Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 13% 1% 5%
Weekly -11% 11% 1%

Retail Traders Increase their Weekly Net-Short Positions.

Retail trader data show 38.67% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.59 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 3.81% higher than yesterday and 11.32% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.35% higher than yesterday and 13.48% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed GBP/USD trading bias.

What is your view on the British Pound – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

EUR/USD At Risk of Retreat Below 1.05 Key Level

KEY POINTS:

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READ MORE: EUR/USD Technical Outlook: Retreat Imminent?

EUR/USD FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

The Euro has enjoyed a positive start to the London session rallying 100-odd pips against the greenback from Asian session lows around 1.0340. The pair closed last week above the resistance area around 1.0350 which was its highest close since June 2022. The move seems to be largely dollar driven at this stage however we have had a batch of surprising data releases from the Eurozone coupled with a hawkish rhetoric from ECB policymakers which could be seen as partly responsible for the buoyant mood around the Euro of late.

The pair faced downside pressure in the Asian session as growing Covid protests in China weighed on sentiment. Protests erupted in Shanghai over the weekend as frustration continues to grow over the ‘Covid-Zero’ strategy. Chinese officials have doubled down this morning vowing to curb the rapid growth in case numbers while confirming their intentions to keep the effects on the economy to a minimum. The Chinese government reported record Covid numbers for a fifth day in succession.

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US markets return to normal today following last week’s Thanksgiving break. The dollar index enjoyed a bullish Asian session as haven demand returned. The index has however failed to sustain those gains as European trade began retreating toward November lows around the 105.30 area. There is a real possibility that EUR/USD makes a run for the 1.0500 key level and above in the early part of the week before Eurozone and US data releases potentially halt the rally. The day ahead is relatively light on the calendar front with the main events being speeches from Federal Reserve policymakers John Williams and James Bullard (both hawks) which could help arrest the dollar’s slide. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is also scheduled to address the European Parliament in Brussels later today.

Graphical user interface, text  Description automatically generated

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the DailyFX Calendar

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD finished last week with a candle close above a key resistance area around 1.0350. The pair had seen two failed attempts to close above this level in recent weeks before closing above for the first time since June 2022.

The pair now trades above the 200-day MA for the first time since June 2021 which could add further encouragement for Euro bulls. The 1.05 level remains key to any further upside with the pair set to remain at risk of retreat should it fail to record a daily candle close above.

EURUSD Daily Chart – November 28, 2022

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Source: TradingView




of clients are net long.




of clients are net short.

Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 2% 5% 4%
Weekly -13% 11% 0%

IG CLIENT SENTIMENT: MIXED

IGCS shows retail traders are SHORT on EUR/USD, with59%of traders currently holding short positions. At DailyFX we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment but due to recent changes in long and short positioning we arrive at a short-term cautious bias.

Written by: Zain Vawda, Markets Writer for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Zain on Twitter: @zvawda

Crude Oil Weekly Forecast: Brent Dampened by China’s COVID, OPEC+ & U.S. Data to Follow

BRENT CRUDE OIL (LCOc1) TALKING POINTS

  • China’s COVID position deteriorates wounding crude prices.
  • OPEC+ supply could be reduced further.
  • Fed may look to reaffirm aggressive rate path to curb inflation.

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BRENT CRUDE OIL FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

Brent crude oil followed the drop off across the broader commodity complex as Chinese COVID cases continue to surge hurting demand forecasts. Tighter restrictions are again plaguing oil markets and protest action could further limit oil upside. Considering recession fears around the globe, coupled with the weaker demand outlook via China, investor sentiment is slipping and is reflected by the significant reduction in long positioning on ICE Brent.

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CFTC BRENT CRUDE OIL POSITIONING:

image1.png

Source: Refinitiv

OPEC+ is set to meet on Sunday December 4th but there may be some introductory figures given to markets prior to the meeting. With prices on the decline, it is not impossible that OPEC+ cuts supply further than the prior 2MMbbls/d. Although there was mentioned about increasing volume last week, this rumor is unlikely in the current environment.

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This week has quite a few high impact economic events that should give markets some key information to the Fed’s path forward including the all important core inflation statistic. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is also scheduled to speak and may well impose the hawkish narrative once more as financial conditions have eased over the last few weeks. The U.S. has seen an increase in mortgage application during that time and financial conditions are not conducive to the Fed’s fight against inflation. Other key releases include GDP, ISM manufacturing PMI’s and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP).

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

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Source: DailyFX economic calendar

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

BRENT CRUDE (LCOc1) DAILY CHART -UNDATED

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Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG

Daily Brent crude price action has been pushing the Relative Strength Index (RSI) closer to oversold levels and may coincide with a bullish OPEC+ meeting. In the interim, there is scope for further weakness but this weeks movement will be highly dependent on fundamental data as outlined above.

Key resistance levels:

Key support levels:

IG CLIENT SENTIMENT: MIXED

IGCS shows retail traders are NET LONG on crude oil, with 83% of traders currently holding long positions (as of this writing). At DailyFX we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment but due to recent changes in long and short positioning we arrive at a short-term cautious bias.

Contact and followWarrenon Twitter:@WVenketas