The first 20 years of the European Central Bank: Monetary policy

The first 20 years of the European Central Bank: Monetary policy

On 1 May 2018, the ECB delebrated its 20th anniversary. This paper provides a comprehensive view of the ECB’s monetary policy over these two decades. The first section provides a chronological account of the macroeconomic and monetary policy developments in the euro area since the adoption of the…

Bernanke: The real effects of the financial crisis

Bernanke: The real effects of the financial crisis

Economists both failed to predict the global financial crisis and underestimated its consequences for the broader economy. Focusing on the second of these failures, this papers make two contributions. First, I review research since the crisis on the role of credit factors in the decisions of…

Hurricane Economics

Hurricane Economics

Hurricane Florence, Spot VIX around 13, activity in Sep calls.

Ray Dalio Warns ‘History Repeats’ – Understanding Big Debt Crises, Part 1

Ray Dalio Warns ‘History Repeats’ – Understanding Big Debt Crises, Part 1

Ten years ago this month, the world’s financial system nearly ground to a halt. It was a dramatic and pivotal time, which has had lasting effects on many people’s lives. But, as the founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio, notes, it was also something that has happened…

Why Does the Yield Curve Typically Invert before Recessions?

Why Does the Yield Curve Typically Invert before Recessions?

Inversions of the Treasury yield curve, which occur when shorter-term securities have higher interest rates than longer-term ones, have preceded the past seven recessions. But why does the yield curve tend to invert before a recession hits?

In this video, taken from a recent Dialogue with the Fed…

Ray Dalio’s new tips to survive the next market meltdown are grounded in these career secrets

Ray Dalio’s new tips to survive the next market meltdown are grounded in these career secrets

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge-fund firm, lives by a set of rules that, he’d be first to admit, aren’t for everyone.

That’s perfectly OK with him. All Dalio wants is for people to try them on and see what fits, which led to his writing more than 550 pages …

Making big data work for economics

Making big data work for economics

‘Big Data’ present big opportunities for understanding the economy. They can be cheaper and more detailed than traditional data sources, and on scales undreamt of by survey designers. But they can be challenging to use because they rarely adhere to the nice neat classifications used in surveys. …

Elliott Wave theory explained

Elliott Wave theory explained

Elliott Wave theory was established in the 1920s and 1930s by stock market analyst, Ralph Nelson Elliott, who believed that there was a more common structure to markets than the chaotic form seen by most other analysts at that time. His work on cycles and waves remains one of the most popular…

The Yield Curve vs. Unemployment Rate in Predicting Recessions

The Yield Curve vs. Unemployment Rate in Predicting Recessions

Economists look at several indicators when gauging whether the economy is heading toward a recession. A recent Economic Synopses essay examined the predictive power of two of the most commonly used indicators: the yield curve and the unemployment rate.

Business Economist and Research Officer Kevi…