NZD/USD Cracks Lower — More Pain on the Horizon?

/0 Comments/in , /by

Key Highlights

  • NZD/USD started a fresh decline below the 0.6000 support zone.
  • A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance at 0.6000 on the 4-hour chart.
  • EUR/USD extended losses below the 1.1650 and 1.1620 levels.
  • Ethereum price surged further above the $3,080 resistance zone.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

The New Zealand Dollar started a fresh decline from 0.6120 against the US Dollar. NZD/USD dipped below the 0.6050 and 0.6020 support levels.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair traded below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.5883 swing low to the 0.6120 high. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6000.

The pair now trades below 0.6000, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). On the downside, immediate support is near the 0.5940 level. It is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.5883 swing low to the 0.6120 high.

The next key support sits near 0.5900. Any more losses could send the pair toward the 0.5880 support zone. On the upside, the pair could face resistance near the 0.6000 level and the trend line.

The next key resistance sits near the 0.6030 level and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). A close above the 0.6030 level could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair could even clear the 0.6050 resistance. The next major stop for the bulls could be near the 0.6120 resistance.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair started a fresh decline, and the bulls failed to protect the 1.1650 support zone.

Upcoming Economic Events:

  • US Producer Price Index for June 2025 (MoM) – Forecast +0.2%, versus +0.1% previous.
  • US Producer Price Index for June 2025 (YoY) – Forecast +2.5%, versus +2.6% previous.

Silver Trades Around 14 Years High in a Breakout

/0 Comments/in , /by

Silver has been working a catch up in terms of performance compared to the more-shining Gold that really took off against other traded metals in the first half of the year.

Our past analysis of Silver observed the addition of elements that could lead to a breakout, with that outcome actually taking place in the past 4 sessions.

Prices went from a $36.5 consolidation zone to highs of $39.13, a 7.5% rise to levels not seen since September 2011 spikes.

Let’s take a look at where prices currently stand as metals have been retracting slowly off of Friday highs – The Dollar Index broke out after the 9:30 Market Open and this usually doesn’t help with Precious Metal Performance.

Silver Intraday Update

Silver 4H Chart

Silver 4H Chart, July 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Last week’s consolidation at its middle of the range with the 4H MA 50 coming in as support gave some great technical conditions pointing towards the eventual breakout that took the metal to its Friday 39.13 highs on a tight bull channel.

Overbought conditions have led to some reversals in anticipation of today’s CPI Release.

One thing to spot on the current corrective sequence is the playing of the immediate support zone around the 2012 highs (37.50 +/- $0.15). Holding this Zone would consolidate further the breakout towards a new trend.

Any rebound from here would also need to test the upper bound of the channel as the most recent highs stalled about $1 from that area, however time consolidation could lead to even higher prices that is, as long as prices hold the support zone mentioned just before.

Silver 1H Chart

Silver 1H Chart, July 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Placing a Fibonacci tool from the last swing lows to the current highs points at potential stalling within the correction around the 78.6% level at $37.75, within the Support Zone.

1H Momentum is write at oversold after the CPI led to some further correction in prices – About the CPI, the report came in just below expectations, something that should have seen a small rebound in the precious metal however subsequent USD Buying led to the current outcome.

This is a story to watch as markets may start to fade such data points and this tends to form longer trends. We will watch upcoming reactions to data releases in that aspect.

Silver 30m Chart

Silver 30m Chart, July 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The 30m and 1H 50-period Moving average are now acting as resistance and will be key barometers for either continuation (use the MA as selling point) or recovering of strength (breaking out of both the upper bound of the descending 30m channel + the 50 period MA – $38.25)

In any case, prices are now contained between the 50 and 200 30m MA which may point to the consolidation scenario around the $37.75 Fib, as prices are currently entering the 2012 High Support.

Safe Trades!

US Dollar Cannot Find a Direction Despite the Positive CPI Report

/0 Comments/in , /by

Market reactions have been very muted and mixed, even if the CPI report came out with a small but positive surprise.

For those who are discovering the number, US Headline CPI came in as expected (0.287 unrounded Headline vs 0.30% expected).

The Core number was however the more welcomed surprise, coming in at 0.2% (0.227%) vs 0.3% expected – This is what the FED prefers for their decisions.

For Canadian Data also, CPI Came in as expected (1.79% y/y, slightly stronger core)

Reactions have been a bit underwhelming overall, not what could have been expected. Nonetheless, more participants will be coming into the Market at 9:30 for the open, which may trigger some further volatility, totally absent for now.

Markets will need bigger surprises to move more, and except for Nasdaq and S&P Futures that are rising (slowly) on the news, it seems that players are waiting for something else to be on the move.

Let’s take a look at US Dollar charts to see where we are after the CPI report.

Dollar Index 4H Chart

Dollar Index 4H Chart, July 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The Dollar has been grinding upwards since the 1st off July, now hanging around the 98.00 handle since yesterday with buyers showing some hesitancy.

It could have been assumed that participants would await for the number to move forward with the Dolalr buybacks, but for now the 4H Candle is a doji.

Look at the 98.00 PIvot Zone (+/- 15 pips) for immediate strength:

A break above would point towards a test of the 98.50 level that was key support on the way down, the next main resistance is closer to 99.00

A break below would look to test the 97.60 Support in confluence with the bottom of the Upwards Channel from this month that will need to hold to avoid resuming the main downtrend.

Dollar. Index 30M Chart

Dollar Index 30m Chart, July 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Looking closer shows further the lack of volatility from the data, with the Dollar Index confined within at 80 pip range – Other currencies have shown some wicks but no immediate reactions.

Data high in DXY: 98.15 – Low: 97.35, watch for any breakout beyond these points.

We will follow closely what the market is waiting for to start moving as the North-American session is still young and somne geopolitic turmoil might start to be into play between Ukraine and Russia – keep an eye on the news.

Safe Trades!

GBP/USD at Breaking Point: Will Bulls Roar Back?

/0 Comments/in , /by

  • GBP/USD falls below SMAs but one last opportunity for rebound remains.
  • Short-term signals point to oversold conditions; eyes on 1.3400.

GBP/USD extended its decline below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey expressed a willingness to implement larger rate cuts if the labor market shows signs of weakness, according to an interview with The Times.

U.S. and UK CPI figures, due today and tomorrow respectively, are expected to show some persistence in inflation, and the pair is already hovering near a potential pivot zone, trading around the 2025 support trendline at 1.3400. Notably, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2025 uptrend is also nearby, at 1.3390.

The stochastic oscillator has dipped into the oversold region, the price is nearing the lower Bollinger Band, and the RSI is testing its April low – all suggesting that the recent bearish cycle may be nearing exhaustion. If this proves to be the case, the bulls will need to reclaim the 50-day SMA at 1.3500 and then push past the 1.3620 barrier to target again the key 1.3800–1.3860 resistance zone.

Conversely, if selling pressure intensifies below 1.3400, the bears could aim for the 1.3250 constraining zone, followed by the May low at 1.3138. A decisive close below the latter could pave the way toward the 1.3000 level or even lower to the 50% Fibonacci of 1.2943.

In brief, GBPUSD is currently trading near a critical make-or-break point around 1.3400, with the technical picture slightly favoring a potential rebound.

GBP/USD Rate Falls to Key Support Level

/0 Comments/in , /by

As of today, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the British pound has declined by more than 2% against the US dollar since the beginning of July. Notably, the pace of the decline accelerated on Friday and continued into Monday.

According to Reuters, the pound is under pressure due to market concerns over a potential economic slowdown amid an escalating trade war. Last week’s data confirmed a contraction in UK GDP, which could have far-reaching implications. In this context, criticism of the UK government’s failure to reduce public spending is becoming more pronounced.

What’s next for GBP/USD?

Technical Analysis of the GBP/USD Chart

From a bullish perspective, it is worth noting that the pair has fallen to a significant support level around 1.3425. This level previously acted as resistance in the spring, but after a breakout, it has now turned into support (as indicated by arrows on the chart). Additionally, the RSI indicator shows strong oversold conditions, which suggests a potential short-term rebound.

From a bearish standpoint, it is concerning that the sharp rally from point A to point B has been entirely erased by the July decline. This indicates that despite significant gains by the bulls, they failed to hold them—casting doubt on GBP/USD’s ability to sustain growth in the medium term.

Ongoing pressure may lead to an attempt by bears to push GBP/USD below the June low at point A. However, it is also possible that bearish momentum will weaken thereafter, potentially leading to a recovery within the developing downward channel (marked in red).

Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading forex with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Gold Holds Steady But Could Rise on Tariff Developments

/0 Comments/in , /by

The price of gold remains stable at $3,354 per troy ounce this Tuesday, recovering some of the previous day’s losses. Market attention remains firmly fixed on US trade policy developments.

President Donald Trump has formally notified leaders from 25 countries of new tariffs, including a 30% levy on imports from the EU and Mexico, set to take effect on 1 August. Trump warned that nations responding with retaliatory measures could face even stricter US restrictions, though he left room for further negotiations before the tariffs are imposed.

Investors are now awaiting the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, which may offer fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s next steps regarding interest rates.

While physical gold demand remains steady, central bank purchases continue to provide strong strategic support for prices. Meanwhile, the US dollar’s trajectory is having little immediate impact on gold’s movements.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD broke above the 3,340 level, hitting its local target of 3,373. Today, the market has seen a technical pullback to 3,340 (testing from above) before initiating a new upward wave towards 3,400. Once this wave concludes, we anticipate a corrective retracement to 3,340, followed by a potential further rise to 3,434. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains above zero and pointing firmly upwards.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the correction to 3,340 has completed, and the next growth wave towards 3,400 is underway. Today, we expect an advance to 3,370, after which a brief consolidation phase may form. A breakout above this range would reinforce bullish momentum towards 3,400. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this outlook, with its signal line above 50 and rising sharply towards 80.

Conclusion

Gold’s near-term trajectory hinges on trade policy shifts and US economic data, while technical indicators suggest further upside potential after consolidation.

Bitcoin Hits $120K+ — Bullish Breakout Extends to Record Levels

/0 Comments/in , /by

Key Highlights

  • Bitcoin started a fresh increase and traded to a new high above the $120,000 resistance.
  • BTC/USD is following a bullish trend line with support at $119,500 on the 4-hour chart.
  • Ethereum climbed higher above $3,000 resistance.
  • XRP price rallied above the $2.80 level and tested the $3.00 zone.

Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis

Bitcoin price started a fresh increase above the $112,000 zone against the US Dollar. BTC was able to surpass the $115,000 and $116,500 resistance levels.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the price settled above the $115,000 level, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). The bulls even pumped the price above the $120,000 resistance.

A new all-time high was formed near $123,200 and the price is now consolidating gains. If there is a pullback, Bitcoin might find support near the $119,500 level.

There is also a bullish trend line forming with support at $119,500 on the same chart. A downside break below $119,500 might send BTC toward the $117,500 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $115,000 support zone.

On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $123,200 level. The next key resistance is $125,000. A successful close above $125,000 might start another steady increase.

In the stated case, the price may perhaps rise toward the $126,500 level. Any more gains might call for a test of $128,000.

Looking at Ethereum, the bulls seem to be in control, and they were able to push the price above the $3,000 resistance zone.

Today’s Economic Releases

  • US Consumer Price Index for June 2025 (MoM) – Forecast +0.3%, versus +0.1% previous.
  • US Consumer Price Index for June 2025 (YoY) – Forecast +2.7%, versus +2.4% previous.
  • US Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy for June 2025 (YoY) – Forecast +3.0%, versus +2.8% previous.

US CPI Preview – Potential Reactions and Major Forex Pairs Overview

/0 Comments/in , /by

Tomorrow’s July 15th Consumer Price Index inflation report has built some anticipation in the past week as markets try to cover some of their Dollar-selling positions, which took the Dollar Index to 96.50 lows on July 1st.

Since then, positive US Job reports and another leg of the tech-AI boom have brought the USD back to the 98.00 handle, where Markets are close to trading.

Nasdaq is again very close to record highs, and the S&P 500 is doing the same. Only the Dow Jones has been lagging on this move, based on the structural reshaping towards Tech, particularly in the past week: Bitcoin rallied consequently to new highs (around $123,200), and NVIDIA passed $4 trillion in Market Cap.

Today’s CPI Preview will primarily focus on Forex pairs, where a decent turn in the US Dollar may shape currency flows for the ongoing second half. Let’s see where the Markets currently stand to get ready for the big number.

Expectations for the July CPI Report

Expectations are for a decent increase both to the Headline and Core CPI data – both at + 0.3% month-over-month – This will take the Headline CPI to 2.4% Y/Y and the Core to 2.8% Y/Y.

As a reminder, the Core excludes more volatile Food and Energy Prices but keeps a closer look on Services inflation which has stayed high throughout the past 3 to 4 years now and is a stickier problem for the FED, one of the reasons why Central Banks tend to focus more on the Core numbers.

One thing about this month’s release which, as a reminder, looks back at the June consumer prices, may have a fair difference between Headline and Core due to a spectacular week and a half rise in Oil prices during the Israel-Iran War, which may have also impacted fertilizer prices, hence food prices throughout the end of the month.

This report will also be one of the last reports before the tariffs actually get implemented (if the TACO doesn’t materialize once again) – Therefore markets may interpret this report as a basis for a before-after comparison.

Potential reactions to the number

Predicting market reactions will be a quasi-impossible task, due to the current state of Markets – There is uncertainty all-around, with one ongoing theme being the post-TACO trade turning into real Tariff Fears, something to monitor in the absence of progress in trade discussions.

One sure thing is that, as mentioned in the introduction, there is some position covering in US Dollar selling which has created some immediate tops and bottoms in some major currency pairs.

My take on potential reactions to the data (Due to the unpredictable nature of Markets, reactions may differ heavily):

A major beat (over +0.1%, the bigger the beat, the heavier the reaction) will create the most panic, leading to Equities retracting from their highs, a major rise in Yields (US Treasuries selling) and US Dollar strengthening significantly and pricing out of September cuts.

A miss would most likely lead to some downside in the USD, a continued rally in Stock Indices and some relief in Bond demand, Yields falling and the pricing of some more cuts in September.

A flat reading would be leading to a small rise then some consolidation in the USD and a potential minor top in Equities due to the still high expectations for the data – July cuts get priced out further and cut premium in September starts to erode progressively for later meetings.

Technical outlook for Forex Major pairs

EURUSD 4H Chart

EURUSD 4H Chart, July 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView

EURUSD has marked an intermediate Top since July 1st reversal in the USD marked at 1.1830. and prices recently broke the Mid-May upward trendline that propusled the pair to its 2025 highs.

Since, Markets have formed an 800 pip-wide downwards channel which is an element to keep an eye on for reversal of acceleration of the intermediate trend.

Levels to watch for:

Support Levels:

  • 1.1650 Current Pivot
  • 1.16 Resistance Zone turned Support (+/- 150 pips)
  • 1.1450 to 1.1470 Last Pivotal Support

Resistance Levels:

  • 1.1710 Channel Highs
  • 1.17280 4H MA 50
  • Main resistance 1.1830

GBPUSD 4H Chart

GBPUSD 4H Chart, July 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView

GBPUSD has retracted strongly since its 1.3750 July Highs overpassing 2022 levels. Some Political mess-ups and general USD Strength has led to a strong reaction, with prices currently in oversold territory and nearing a key support.

One bigger thing to look at is a Death-Cross (50 MA going below 200) further strengthening the bearish momentum – A break of the 1.34 support will hint at an acceleration of the selloff.

Support Levels:

  • 1.34 Support Zone
  • 1.32 to 1.3250 Major higher timeframe support

Resistance Levels:

  • 1.3550 Pivot in Confluence with MA 50 and 200
  • 1.3750 to 1.3765 Main Resistance

USDCAD 4H Chart

USDCAD 4H Chart, July 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The pair is hanging right above the 1.37 handle which will be acting as a key barometer for demand.

Overall, the price action is still contained within a 2,500 pip range – US-Canada trade talks seem to be dawdling, therefore before seeing any further continuation in prices, it seems that Markets are mostly moving on USD Demand, despite some continuous beats in Canadian data.

Support Levels:

  • Pivot zone 1.3675 to 1.3686 and 4H MA 200
  • 1.3650 4H MA 50
  • Higher Timeframe Key support Zone 1.3560 to 1.36

Resistance Levels:

  • 1.3740 Pivot turned Resistance
  • 1.38 Main Resistance

USDCHF 4H Chart

USDCHF 4H Chart, July 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView

USDCHF has marked a first rebound at 2011 14 year lows and re-integrated its downwards channel – The pair has however not regained such high momentum compared to other Majors, trading in a tight (600 pip) range since the middle of last week.

The downtrend had been very consistent in the pair, with more than broader USD strength required for the pair to regain bullish momentum – One element to note for Bulls however is the pair passing above its 4H 50-period MA for the first time since early in May, a development to monitor closely.

Support Levels:

  • 0.7956
  • 0.79 Support
  • 0.7873 Lows

Resistance Levels:

  • Immediate Pivot 0.80
  • 0.8050 Resistance and High of Channel
  • 0.81320 MA 200
  • 0.82 Main Resistance

NZDUSD 4H Chart

NZDUSD 4H Chart, July 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The Kiwi is starting to form some bearish signs, just breaking down from its yearly ascending channel and now trading below the 0.60 Psychological level.

Depending on the continuation of the US Dollar covering, the move may amplify but this will depend on the result of tomorrow’s inflation data.

Two elements to look for NZDUSD trading is: A re-entry or confirmation of the ascending range (light blue limits) and the confirmation of the 4H Death-Cross

Support Levels:

  • 0.5930
  • 0.59 Psychological Level
  • 0.58466 May lows

Resistance Levels:

  • Immediate Pivot 0.60
  • 0.60220 to 0.60250 4H MA 50 and 200
  • 0.6050
  • 0.6110 to 0.6120 2025 Highs

AUDUSD 4H Chart

AUDUSD 4H Chart, July 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView

AUDUSD had been holding strong, particularly after last week’s surprise hold (cut expected) that added to some fundamental strength in the currency.

Recent retests of the previous week highs and consequent rejection is leading to the formation of a double top. If this holds tomorrow’s number, the following outlook will start to look more bearish. For now, AUDUSD is still holding its daily ascending range.

Support Levels:

  • 0.6550 4H MA 50 as immediate Pivot
  • 0.65 to 0.6510 Low of Channel and 4H MA 200

Resistance Levels:

  • Swing Resistance and Double Top 0.6570 to 0.6580
  • 0.66730 High of upwards channel

Bonne fête nationale Française (Happy French National Day) and Safe Trades going into tomorrow’s Key Number!

USDJPY Tests the Extremes of Its Range in a Calm Forex Session

/0 Comments/in , /by

Good morning for the North-American readers and nice start to the week to everyone.

The ongoing Forex session is a very calm one, as most traders brace for the upcoming US CPI data release tomorrow, with the most moving currency in the day being the AUD and NZD seeing some selling.

France is also celebrating their National Day! (Bonne fête aux compatriotes !)

Other markets have however seen some movements:

  • the Singapore STI has been making records highs on its 6th consecutive session
  • Bitcoin hit highs of $123,000
  • Orange Juice Futures are squeezing again (up above 18% on the session, +50% since July)

Let’s prepare for tomorrow’s huge number by taking a look at where we stand in the current range in USDJPY as the pair has also been rising strongly in the past two weeks.

USDJPY Analysis from the Daily to 1H Charts

USDJPY Daily Chart

USDJPY Daily Chart, July 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView

A lack of bullish catalysts for the Yen has created a massive outflow in the currency.

The CHF is once again taking the throne for the most favored Safe-Haven major currency amid Dollar Restructuring.

The still dovish (though much less than previous years) policies from the Bank of Japan, and lack of solid hawkish communications while American rates are still at 4.50% keep giving USDJPY Buyers a fundamental edge, particularly as Dollar selling has been abating since the beginning of July.

USDJPY 4H Chart

USDJPY 4H Chart, July 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The rebound from the 142.50 July 1st lows has been remarkable, seeing more details from the Daily chart – The 4H 50-period moving average is starting to tilt upwards, potentially giving even more underlying strength to the ongoing move.

The 4H RSI is approaching overbought but isn’t there yet, with today’s lack of movement helping momentum to pause which will surely be a good reason for prices to catapult upwards or downwards tomorrow – The direction is difficult to predict, but volatility is sure to be elevated.

In case of any breakout to the upside, the upcoming Resistance will be between 149.50 to 150.00.

USDJPY 1H Chart

USDJPY 1H Chart, July 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Compared to the two other times were prices visited the extremes of the range between 147.50 to 148.00, this ongoing uptrend is more progressive and stable – In Markets, more erratic, steep trends can end more abruptly therefore keep an eye on how consistent this move has been.

It could be a sign of more progressive demand for the USD and may lead to a breakout

In any way, players will be waiting for tomorrow’s data release to get a better idea of US Dollar demand which will be difficult to predict.

Any fail to break the highs of the range will confirm its solidity, leading to a higher probability of retesting at least the 146.00 Resistance turned Pivot.

A spike upwards tomorrow will surely be met with some continuation amid a potential breakout to test at least 150.00.

A consolidation around these levels also may up the probabilities of a more progressive breakout.

In the meantime, before seeing the contrary, the range is to hold, but behold tomorrow’s CPI 8:30 AM release which may break any resistance or support!

Safe Trades!

XAG/USD: Silver Hits New Multi-Year High

/0 Comments/in , /by

Silver hit the highest in nearly 14 years on Monday, testing levels above $39 as strong bullish acceleration extends into third consecutive day.

Growing uncertainty over US tariffs and weak economic outlook continue to fuel demand and underpin the price.

Fresh rally broke above recent $35.30/$37.30 consolidation range, signaling continuation of broader uptrend and unmasking psychological $40 barrier.

Technical picture on daily chart is firmly bullish but overbought that threatens of increased headwinds on approach to $40 target.

This may put bulls on hold for consolidation which should ideally hold above $37 zone (former breakpoint, reverted to support) to keep bulls intact for fresh push higher.

Sustained break above $40 to generate fresh bullish signal and expose targets at $40.68 (Fibo 76.4% of $49.78/$11.23, 2011/2020 downtrend) and $41.00 (round-figure).

Caution on loss of $37 handle that would weaken near-term structure and risk attack at lower pivots at $35.00 zone (former range floor / broken Fibo 61.8% of $49.78/$11.23 downtrend).

Res: 39.50; 40.00; 40.68; 41.00.
Sup: 38.25; 37.31; 36.15; 35.00.