EUR/USD Significantly Rises as Risks Diminish

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EUR/USD climbed to 1.0453 on Friday, reaching a two-week high and maintaining stability.

Key drivers behind EUR/USD movement

The euro’s gains accelerated after US President Donald Trump signed a memorandum to review retaliatory duties without immediately imposing new tariffs. This decision eased investor concerns, reducing fears of an aggressive US response that could have added to inflationary pressures. With no immediate trade retaliations, markets view inflation risks as stabilising, reducing uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

Additionally, geopolitical tensions appear to be easing, lowering the risk premium in the currency market and further supporting EUR/USD.

However, doubts remain regarding the monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB). While the Fed continues to be cautious, showing little urgency to cut interest rates, the ECB is actively considering rate cuts. This policy mismatch is expected to weigh on the euro in the long term.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD extended its growth wave towards 1.0466 before forming a consolidation range below this level. The pair has now broken downward from this range, opening the potential for a decline towards 1.0372. Once this target is reached, a corrective move towards 1.0416 is likely. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line at high levels, suggesting an imminent pullback to lower lows.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD completed its growth wave to 1.0466 and is now consolidating in a narrow range. A downward breakout is expected, initially targeting 1.0420, followed by a potential correction towards 1.0444. In the longer term, another downward wave will likely develop, targeting 1.0394 and extending towards 1.0372. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this bearish outlook, with its signal line positioned below 50 and trending towards 20, indicating growing downside pressure.

Conclusion

While EUR/USD has gained on reduced trade war risks and stabilising inflation fears, the pair is now facing a short-term correction. The monetary policy divergence between the Fed and ECB remains a key factor that could limit further upside for the euro. Technically, a pullback towards 1.0372 is likely in the short term, with potential corrective bounces towards 1.0416 and 1.0444 before the next downward wave. Market participants will continue monitoring US trade policy updates and Fed rate expectations for further direction.

USD/JPY Eyes Another Drop—Key Support Levels in Focus

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Key Highlights

  • USD/JPY failed to clear the 154.80 resistance zone.
  • A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance at 154.80 on the 4-hour chart.
  • EUR/USD is rising and might test the 1.0520 resistance zone.
  • Gold prices are again rising and might aim for a move above the $2,950 level.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar started a recovery wave above the 154.00 level against the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY struggled to continue higher above 154.80 and dipped.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair peaked at 154.88 and is currently correcting gains. There was a move below the 153.50 and 153.20 levels. The pair even declined below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 150.92 swing low to the 154.88 high.

The pair is now showing bearish signs below the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 154.80 on the same chart.

On the downside, immediate support sits near the 152.40 level. It is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 150.92 swing low to the 154.88 high. The next key support sits near the 151.80 level. Any more losses could send the pair toward the 150.50 level.

On the upside, the pair seems to be facing hurdles near the 153.80 level. The next major resistance is near the 154.50 level. The main resistance is now forming near the 154.80 zone.

A close above the 154.80 level could set the tone for another increase. In the stated case, the pair could even clear the 155.50 resistance.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair remained stable and might aim for more gains above the 1.0500 level in the near term.

Upcoming Economic Events:

  • US Retail Sales for Jan 2025 (MoM) – Forecast -0.1%, versus +0.4% previous.

Elliott Wave View: Silver (XAGUSD) Looking for the Next Leg Higher

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Short term Elliott Wave in Silver (XAGUSD) suggests rally from 12.19.2024 low unfolded as a 5 waves with extension (nest). Up from 12.19.2024 low, wave (1) ended at 30.972 and pullback in wave (2) ended at 29.68. The metal has resumed higher in wave (3). Up from wave (2), wave ((i)) ended at 31.73 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 30.64. The metal resumed higher in wave ((iii)) towards 32.55 and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 31.72. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 32.64 which completed wave 1.

Pullback in wave 2 unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 31.6 and wave ((b)) ended at 32.33. Wave ((c)) lower ended at 31.22 which completed wave 2 in higher degree. The metal has turned higher. Up from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 31.95 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 31.48. Up from there, wave (i) ended at 32.39 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 31.97. Near term, as far as pivot at 29.67 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for more upside.

Silver 60 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

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EURUSD Found Buyers After 3 Waves Pull Back

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Hello fellow traders,

In this technical article we’re going to take a look at the Elliott Wave charts charts of EURUSD forex pair published in members area of the website. As our members know, recently EURUSD made a 3-wave pullback that completed right at the equal legs level. In the following sections, we will analyze the charts and explain the Elliott Wave forecast.

EURUSD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 02.07.2025

EURUSD ended cycle from the 1.0205 low as 5 waves structure- wave ((i)) black. The pair is currently giving us pull back against the 1.0205 low. Equal legs area is already reached at 1.0320-1.0262 area. We are aware that pull back can complete any moment. Although we expect to see rally from the marked area, we don’t recommend forcing the trades at this stage.

EURUSD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 02.07.2025

The pair found buyers in the 1.0320-1.0262 area as expected and completed the correction at the 1.0286 low. We’d like to see a break of the ((i)) black peak to confirm further upward movement toward the 1.05129-1.05671 area.

Gold Surges as Three Key Factors Drive Prices Higher

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Gold prices soared to 2,918 USD per troy ounce by Thursday, 13 February, marking an all-time high above 2,900 USD. The rally in Gold remains strong, with the potential for further price increases.

Key drivers behind Gold’s surge

 At least three major factors are supporting Gold’s rapid ascent:

  1. Geopolitical tensions – The ongoing deterioration in US-China relations, mainly due to the imposition of trade tariffs on Chinese imports, has heightened demand for safe-haven assets like Gold.
  2. Global monetary policy expectations – Investors anticipate that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, which weakens the US dollar and makes Gold more attractive as an alternative investment.
  3. Central bank demand – Many global central banks, including China’s, are actively increasing their Gold reserves, providing strong demand support for the metal.

The ongoing weakness in the USD has further amplified Gold’s bullish momentum.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

 On the H4 chart, XAU/USD found support at 2,865 USD and extended its growth wave to 2,909 USD. The market is now likely to consolidate around this level. A downward breakout from this range could trigger a corrective move back to 2,865 USD. However, if the price breaks upward, the growth wave could extend to 2,920 USD, with further potential to 2,960 USD. The MACD indicator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above zero and pointing sharply upwards, indicating strong bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, XAU/USD corrected to 2,865 USD before finding support and forming a new uptrend towards 2,909 USD. The price is now consolidating around this level. The next target will be 2,920 USD if it breaks upwards, followed by a potential extension to 2,960 USD. A short-term decline to 2,909 USD is possible before another upward move. The Stochastic oscillator supports this view, with its signal line above 80, preparing for a minor correction towards 50 before the next leg higher.

Conclusion

Gold continues to benefit from geopolitical tensions, Fed rate cut expectations, and strong central bank demand. While minor pullbacks may occur, the overall trend remains bullish, with key upside targets at 2,920 USD and 2,960 USD. Investors will closely watch further developments in US-China trade relations and any signals from the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, as these will shape the next major move in Gold prices.

Germany DAX Technical: Bullish Acceleration Towards Fresh All-Time Highs

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  • The current bullish trend in the German stock market is supported by positive momentum, market breadth & intermarket dynamics.
  • The DAX and Hang Seng Index (HSI) have a high direct correlation where a further bullish move in HSI may trigger a positive feedback loop into the DAX.
  • Watch the 21,100 key medium-term pivotal support on the DAX.

The latest key economic data for January such as manufacturing PMI and consumer confidence in the Eurozone and Germany, one of the anchor European economies are not rosy as they highlighted an increased risk of an impending recession in the Eurozone.

Also, these leading Eurozone economic indicators have yet to indicate any clear recovery from an economic slowdown in the past year where external factors such as impending trade tariffs on European manufactured motor vehicles from US President Trump may torpedo the Eurozone into a recession next year.

In contrast, the German stock market has ignored such fears. It has continued to march higher since November 2024 as the Germany DAX scales new fresh all-time highs and is on track to record its fourth consecutive positive monthly gain in February.

Outperformance of the Germany stock market

Fig 1: 1-month rolling performances of Germany 30 & US CFD stock indices as of 13 Feb 2025 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

Interestingly, the Germany DAX and Hang Seng stock indices (a proxy for international investors and traders to get exposure to China equities) have tracked closely to one another and outperformed the major US stock indices on a one-month rolling basis at this time of the writing according to the prices of contract for difference (CFD) stock indices on these markets offered by OANDA.

Based on a one-month rolling performance basis, the Germany 30 CFD stock index (a representation of the DAX) has recorded a gain of 10.50%, almost two times more than the average return of 4.6% seen on major US CFD stock indices such as US Nasdaq100 and US SPX 500 (see Fig 1).

Improving market breadth

Fig 2: Percentage of DAX component stocks above 200-day moving average as of 7 Feb 2025 (Source: MacroMicro, click to enlarge chart)

The percentage number of DAX component stocks trading above their respective 200-day moving averages has increased significantly from 47% in mid-November 2024 to 65% as of 7 February 2025 (see Fig 2).

These observations suggest that market breadth has improved to increase the odds of a continuation of the ongoing medium-term uptrend phase of the DAX.

Bullish acceleration in DAX

Fig 3: Medium-term trend of Germany 30 CFD stock index as of 13 Feb 2025 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

The price actions of the Germany 30 CFD stock index (a representation of the DAX) staged a breakout above the upper boundary of a major ascending channel on 17 January.

Thereafter, it continued to trade above its 20-day moving average without any bearish divergence conditions currently on its overbought daily RSI momentum indicator (see Fig 3).

In addition, the Germany 30 CFD stock index has a high positive correlation (20-day rolling correlation coefficient at 0.87) with the Hang Seng Index (a proxy of China’s stock market).

The Hang Seng Index may continue to see an extension of its impulsive bullish upmove sequence within an ongoing medium-term uptrend phase (click here for a recap of our recent analysis on the Hang Seng Index) which in turn may trigger a positive feedback loop back into the Germany 30 CFD stock index.

Watch the 21,100 key medium-term pivotal support to maintain the bullish bias for the next medium-term resistances to come in at 23,140 and 24,100.

However, a breakdown below 21,100 invalidates the bullish impulsive upmove sequence to kickstart a potential medium-term (multi-week) corrective decline to expose the next medium-term supports at 20,430 and 19,690.

Brent Crude Price Drops After Trump’s Call with Putin

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According to the XBR/USD chart, the price of Brent crude oil fell by more than 2% in a single day. This decline followed an announcement by US President Trump that he had spoken with Russian President Putin, discussing various global issues, including the war in Ukraine.

As reported by Reuters, this has raised expectations that a potential peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia could involve lifting sanctions, which have disrupted global oil supply flows.

Technical Analysis of XBR/USD

On 7 February, we highlighted key support at $74. Since then, the price has risen (as indicated by the arrow) to $77, which has confirmed its role as resistance.

Brent crude price movements outline a descending channel (marked in blue), with:

→ Bullish perspective: The $74 level may still act as support.

→ Bearish perspective: The $75.50–$75.80 zone, where sellers have shown dominance, could challenge bulls attempting to push prices into the upper half of the channel.

Rising US oil inventories, the prospect of increased production under President Trump, and expectations of sanctions on Russia being lifted could all contribute to Brent crude revisiting its 2025 lows.

Start trading commodity CFDs with tight spreads. Open your trading account now or learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Elliott Wave View: 5 Swing Sequence in Copper (HG) Favors Higher

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Short term Elliott Wave in Copper shows 5 swing sequence from 11.14.2024 low, favoring more upside. Up from 11.14.2024 low, wave 1 ended at 4.335 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 4.005. The metal has resumed higher in wave 3. Up from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 4.47 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 4.1835. Internal subdivision of wave ((ii)) unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((i)), wave (w) ended at 4.235, wave (x) ended at 4.389, and wave (y) lower ended at 4.184 which completed wave ((ii)) in higher degree.

The metal has resumed higher in wave ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)), wave i ended at 4.3535 and pullback in wave ii ended at 4.3065. Wave iii higher ended at 4.5095 and pullback in wave iv ended at 4.411. Wave v higher ended at 4.715 which completed wave (i) in higher degree. Pullback in wave (ii) ended at 4.541. Pair has resumed higher in wave (iii). Near term, as far as pivot at 4.1845 low stays intact, expect dips to find buyers in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.

Copper (HG) 60 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

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WTI Crude Oil Prices Meets Stiff Resistance—Will Bulls Push Through?

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Key Highlights

  • WTI Crude Oil prices started a recovery wave from the $70.80 support.
  • It cleared a key bearish trend line with resistance at $72.20 on the 4-hour chart.
  • Gold prices started a downside correction from the record high of $2,942.
  • EUR/USD is attempting to start a fresh increase above the 1.0380 resistance level.

WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

WTI Crude Oil price started a major decline below $75.00. The price declined below the $73.00 and $72.00 levels before the bulls appeared.

Looking at the 4-hour chart of XTI/USD, the price settled below the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). A low was formed at $70.87 and the price is now correcting some losses.

There was a move above the $71.50 and $72.00 levels. The price cleared a key bearish trend line with resistance at $72.20 on the same chart. It even spiked above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $80.76 swing high to the $70.87 low.

On the upside, the price is facing hurdles near the $73.50 level. The main hurdle is now near the $74.00 zone and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), above which the price may perhaps accelerate higher.

In the stated case, it could even visit the $75.80 resistance. Any more gains might call for a test of the $78.00 resistance zone in the near term.

On the downside, the first major support sits near the $72.20 zone. A daily close below $72.20 could open the doors for a larger decline. The next major support is $70.80. Any more losses might send oil prices toward $68.00 in the coming days.

Looking at Gold, there was a strong increase above the $2,900 level and the price is now correcting some gains.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

  • UK GDP for Q4 2024 (Preliminary) (QoQ) – Forecast -0.1%, versus 0% previous.
  • US Initial Jobless Claims – Forecast 215K, versus 219K previous.

Dow Jones (DJIA) Analysis: Inflation Impact and Market Recovery

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  • The Dow Jones initially fell following a US inflation report but recovered somewhat.
  • US consumer prices saw their biggest jump in over a year, supporting the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates.
  • Fed Chair Powell cautioned against reading too much into the inflation data, citing the PCE inflation gauge as the preferred measure.
  • Uncertainty remains in the markets regarding how tariffs will impact global growth and inflation.

The Dow Jones fell around 400 points on Wednesday following a hot US inflation report. However, the Dow has since recovered around 300 points to trade 0.45% down for the day at the time of writing.

DJIA Heatmap at the time of writing

Source: TradingView

US CPI Shock – A Cautionary Tale?

Consumer prices in the U.S. saw their biggest jump in almost a year and a half this January. This supports the Federal Reserve’s stance and something that Fed Chair Powell mentioned on Wednesday. The Fed Chair remained steadfast in his assessment that the central bank isn’t ready to lower interest rates yet, especially with uncertainty surrounding the economy.

Source: LSEG

Fed Chair Powell began his second day of testimony before Congress with inflation and rate cuts remaining key. Fed Chair Powell did however mention that he would caution against reading too much into today’s inflation data, reminding everyone of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE data.

Some other key quotes from Fed chair Powell below:

  • WE WANT TO SEE MORE PROGRESS ON INFLATION
  • DIDNT SEE MUCH PROGRESS ON CORE INFLATION LAST YEAR
  • WE HAVE THE LUXURY OF BEING ABLE TO WAIT FOR THAT, GIVEN STRONG ECONOMY
  • LAST FEW JOB REPORTS HAVE SHOWN SIGNIFICANT JOB CREATION, MAY HAVE TICKED UP AT END OF YEAR
  • OFFER A NOTE OF CAUTION ON TODAY’S CPI READING; WE TARGET PCE INFLATION WHICH IS A BETTER MEASURE
  • WE’LL KNOW WHAT PCE READINGS ARE LATE TOMORROW, AFTER PPI DATA

Despite Fed Chair Powell’s comments I do not think that this report should be taken lightly. ANy future inflation readings will likely feel some strain from tariffs, which could push inflation even higher.

According to reports, President Trump’s trade advisors are preparing reciprocal tariffs on every country that charges duties on US imports.

When looking at a sector breakdown, the only sector up at the time of writing was consumer non-cyclicals with basic materials down the most.

Dow Jones Sector Performance

Source: LSEG

Apple reversed higher post CPI to trade in the green for the day, but fellow magnificent 7 stocks continued to toil with NVIDIA and Amazon still in the red for the day.

Despite the CPI print markets remain cautious as there is still a lot of uncertainty in regard to how tariffs will impact both global growth and inflation.

Technical Analysis

Dow Jones

From a technical standpoint, the Dow Jones has recovered quite well post the CPI release.

The index is trading at the support level 44450 having bounced out of a key confluence area earlier in the day.

The overall trend on the daily is a mixed one with a lower high finding no follow through to print a lower low. These conditions are being seen in a few different asset classes and a sign of the uncertainty prevalent in markets.

Immediate resistance rests at 44759 and 45097, with immediate support at 44200 and 43800.

Dow Jones (US30) Daily Chart, February 12, 2025

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) 

Support

Resistance