BTC/USD Forex Signal: Consolidating Below $100,000

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Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.50% per trade.

Trades may only be taken before 5pm Tokyo time Friday.

BTC/USD Signal Today 06/02: Consolidating Below 100K (Chart)

Long Trade Ideas

  • Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $96,165, $94,510, $93,010.

Short Trade Ideas

  • Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $98,739, $100,306, or $100,806.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote in my previous BTC/USD forecast on 3rd February that we were seeing a strong rebound after a very sharp fall, but I thought that bulls would struggle to push the price above $95,560, so I was looking for a short trade there or even from the next resistance level at $99,298.

This was not a good call, as after a brief pause, the price continued to rise as high as the $102,000 area, before descending again.

Bitcoin is missing out on the party right now – its old school rival Gold has been breaking strongly to new highs, but Bitcoin has not. By contrast, Bitcoin is languishing below $100,000 and does not look in a hurry to go anywhere.

This is notable considering that it made a new all-time high last month, and the new Trump administration is firmly in office although it has done little to push its pro-crypto agenda.

If you are going to trade Bitcoin today, just looking for reversals from any key support or resistance levels I’ve identified above will probably be the best opportunity, but there will likely be better opportunities in Forex, commodities, or stock market indices today.

There is nothing of high importance due today regarding Bitcoin. Concerning the US Dollar, there will be a release of Unemployment Claims data at 1:30pm London time.

USD/PHP Forecast: Holds Range

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  • The US dollar initially tried to rally a bit against the Philippine peso during the trading session on Wednesday, but you can see we continue to soften.
  • You have to ask the question as to whether or not the continuation of consolidation is the next move, or do we break down?
  • Over the last two or three months we’ve been bouncing around roughly 59 above and 57.75 below.
  • What I find interesting about the 57.50 level below is that between here and there we have the 57.75 level, which has offered support, but we also have the 200 day EMA.

The Next Couple of Days

So, I think we need to watch how this plays out over the next couple of days. While I don’t necessarily like the idea of shorting the US dollar, it is worth noting that the Philippine peso is a much smaller currency pair, and therefore it will take a lot less to get things going in one direction or the other. On a bounce at this point, I think I’d be a buyer for short term range bound trade, but I don’t know that we’re going anywhere longer term, at least not yet. If we did break above the 59.15 level, then we could see the US dollar really take off against the Philippine peso.

USD/PHP Forecast Today 06/02: Holds Range (graph)

But right now, it looks like we are happy with sideways action. If we break down below the 57.50 level that I mentioned previously, I think we drop another leg lower initially targeting 57 and then eventually going down to 56.50. In general, this is a market that I think continues to be very noisy, but I also recognize that there is a little bit of support just below, so I’m not really willing to jump in right away.

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BTC/USD Forecast: Remains in a Massive Range

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  • Bitcoin initially tried to rally during the trading session on Wednesday, but has given back the gains just a little, as the 50-day EMA has offered a bit of resistance.
  • Above there, we also have the $100,000 level, but this is not a market that I’m looking to short.
  • And in fact, I do believe that it goes higher, given enough time.

We have been consolidating between the $90,000 level and the $110,000 level over the last two and a half months or so. I think that probably continues to be the case. After all, despite the fact that we have pro crypto administration in the White House, the reality is that not much has been done yet. So with that being the case, the market looks as if it is going to continue to hang around in this area waiting for some type of catalyst.

The Fed Matters

BTC/USD Forecast Today 06/02: Remains in a Range (graph)

The Federal Reserve remains very tight with monetary policy and that works against risk assets such as Bitcoin, so part of that will probably continue to be the case. And it’s worth noting that inflation is of course running hotter than anticipated and wanted really. So, I think at this point in time the Federal Reserve has quite a bit of influence on Bitcoin despite the fact that and Bitcoin evangelists say that it is decentralized money.

It’s not clearly being controlled by Wall Street and monetary policy expectations. So, with that being said, basically what you’re waiting for is the Fed to start cutting rates again. They don’t look like they’re getting ready to nor do they look like they are getting ready to even suggest that they are getting ready to, and I suspect that most Bitcoin traders now are using this as a vehicle to accumulate over time and then eventually it will break out to the upside.

If we were to break above the $110,000 level it opens up a move to the $130,000 level based on the measured move of $20,000. The $88,000 level being broken could bring a test of the 200 day EMA but right now that doesn’t look like the likeliest of paths.

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Gold Forecast: Sees Massive Momentum

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  • Gold continues to just rip to the upside, and I think that might continue to be the case, but I’m also a little bit cautious about chasing it all the way up at this level.
  • In fact, I have liquidated a huge portion of my gold holdings only to buy it on a dip, but when you start to see the market go a little bit to the parabolic side, it’s time to start, perhaps, taking care of trade management.
  • So, while I would certainly not short this market, I do think that you will get a better price to enter.

Nonetheless, the market is almost certainly going to go looking to the 2900 level. And then I believe the 3000 level. And in fact, $3,000 is my target at the moment. Nonetheless,

I Want a Pullback

I would love to see some type of pullback towards the $2,800 level that I can take advantage of. Right now, if you are not involved in this market, clearly you don’t need to be chasing it. If you are long of gold, you could follow me and take some profit, or in my case, I took about 80%, and then I’ll let it pull back. And once it pulls back and then bounces again, I’ll start adding.

Gold Forecast Today 06/02: Sees Massive Momentum (graph)

Worst case scenario, you take a big chunk of profit now and let a little run for quite some time. I typically look at gold through the prism of the US dollar and interest rates, but sometimes it’s more about the overall global chaos that you are seeing. Right now, I think a lot of it is all three. So with so many different fundamental factors lifting gold, I think it’s only a matter but I think a little bit of exhaustion would go a long way into bringing more people into the market, which is essentially what we’re all hoping for.

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USD/JPY Forecast: Plunges to Key Support

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  • The US dollar has plunged against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Wednesday, as we see a continuation of the overall pullback.
  • That being said, part of this is the bank of Japan governor suggesting that they are now dealing with inflation and therefore it’s possible that they will start to raise rates in a longer term strategy.
  • While that might be true, the reality is that the interest rate difference between the two are still miles apart.

So, I’m not really wanting to short the dollar against the yen. I’m more or less waiting to see how it behaves in this general vicinity. What’s of particular interest to me is that we are right at the 200 day EMA and we did stop. So, it’ll be interesting to see if it holds.

Non-Farm Payroll

USD/JPY Forecast Today 06/02: Plunges to Key Support (graph)

Furthermore, you have to keep in mind that Friday is non-farm payroll Friday, so you have to be a little cautious there as well. Now, having said that, we have to start to ask the question, is the trend changing? We don’t know yet. We are getting there though. We are certainly getting to that point. So, I think this is a pair that is going to be more or less short-term driven and determined, but we will have to watch the 10-year yield in JGBs in Japan and the 10 year yield in America to give us a bit of an idea as to how this may play out.

Interest rate differential is particularly interesting in Japanese yen related pairs as it is part of the carry trade. So, I always keep an eye on that. Nonetheless, the 200 day EMA could offer a bit of technical support. And then of course, Friday is a massive wild card with the employment numbers giving us an idea as to where we may go in the longer term. During the day, there was someone from the Federal Reserve talking about the possibility of an interest rate cut between now and the end of the year, which is still very possible. But these are the same people that at one point were screaming about transitory inflation. They’re almost always wrong. So, at this point in time, it’s a wait and see. But I do think this is a very important level to watch.

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GBP/USD Forex Signal: Bullish Momentum Ahead of BoE Decision

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Bullish view

  • Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2620.
  • Add a stop-loss at 1.2400.
  • Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish view

  • Set a sell-stop at 1.2500 and a take-profit at 1.2400.
  • Add a stop-loss at 1.2620.

GBP/USD Forex Signal Today 06/02: Bullish Momentum (Chart)

The GBP/USD exchange rate continued rising, reaching a high of 1.2550, its highest level since January 7 as focus shifted to the upcoming Bank of England (BoE) decision. It has jumped by about 3.4% from the year-to-date low.

BoE interest rate decision

The GBP/USD pair rose as the market waited for the upcoming Bank of England decision. Economists expect the bank to deliver its third interest rate cut of this cycle as it works to boost the economy.

A 0.25% rate cut will bring it to 4.50% from 4.75%. The bank will also signal that it will continue cutting rates this year because of the slowing economy.

The most recent data showed that the country’s economy was slowing. EY estimates that it grew by just 1% in 2024, down from the previous estimate of 1.5%.

UK’s inflation has also started to fall and is moving towards the 2% target. The most recent data showed that the headline CPI moved from 2.6% in November to 2.5% in December.

The GBP/USD pair also rose after ADP published strong private payroll data, which showed that employees added 184k jobs in January, a big increase from the previous 164k.

The ADP report came a day ahead of the upcoming official nonfarm payroll data. Economists expect the report to show that the economy created 154k jobs in January after adding 256k a month earlier.

While the labor numbers are important, they will not have a big impact on the Federal Reserve since it is focusing on inflation, which has remained significantly above the 2% target.

GBP/USD technical analysis

The GBP/USD exchange rate bottomed at 1.2100 earlier this year and has now bounced back to 1.2550, its highest level since January 7.

It is attempting to move above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD indicators have pointed upwards.

The GBP/USD pair has also jumped above the key resistance level of 1.2295, which was its lowest point in April last year.

Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising as bulls target the next key resistance level at 1.2610, the lowest point in June last year. A drop below the support at 1.2400 will invalidate the bullish view.

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EUR/USD Forex Signal: Forecast as a Double Bottom Forms

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Bullish view

  • Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0530.
  • Add a stop-loss at 1.0330.
  • Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish view

  • Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0300.
  • Add a stop-loss at 1.0500.

EUR/USD Signal Today 06/02: Double Bottom Forms (Chart)

The EUR/USD exchange rate continued its uptrend as the US dollar index crashed to $107.38 from this year’s high of $105. It jumped to a high of 1.0440, its highest point in a week.

Risk-on sentiment remains

The EUR/USD pair rebounded as the market embraced a risk-on sentiment as trade risks eased. The US has already paused its tariffs with Mexico and Canada as the countries negotiate on various topics like the border and drugs.

Analysts expect that the US will talk to China and pause these levies, which China warned were threatening the two economies. China’s response to Trump’s tariffs was relatively modest as they target goods worth about $20 billion.

US stocks rebounded, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 255 points and the S&P 500 jumping by 20 points. US bond yields continued to drop, with the 10 year falling to 4.415% and the 30-year retreating to 4.65%.

The next key EUR/USD news will be the upcoming European retail sales data. Economists expect the data to show that the headline sales dropped from 0.1% in November to minus 0.1% in December. They also expect the figure rising from 1.2% to 1.9%.

In the US, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the initial and continuing jobless claims data for last week. The initial claims are expected to come in at 214k.

These numbers will come a day before the official nonfarm payroll data. Economists expect these numbers to show that the economy created 180k jobs in January while the unemployment rate remained above 4%.

EUR/USD technical analysis

The EUR/USD exchange rate bottomed at 1.0220 and rebounded to 1.0439 ahead of the upcoming US jobs numbers. It moved above 25-day moving average and the double-bottom pattern at 1.0220. It is now approaching the neckline at 1.0530, its highest swing on January 27.

A double-bottom is one of the market’s highly popular bullish reversal signs. The MACD indicator and other oscillators have all pointed upwards, a sign that it is gaining momentum.

Therefore, the pair will likely keep rising as bulls target the neckline at 1.0530. A break above that level will point to more gains, possibly to 1.0600, the lowest swing in April last year. A drop below the key support at 1.0330 will invalidate the bullish view.

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BTC/USD Forecast: Stalls in Consolidation – 07 February 2025

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  • In my daily analysis of the financial markets, the Bitcoin market has caught my attention because it tells us that we just have nowhere to be.
  • This might be a little bit disconcerting for “Bitcoin bros”, but at the end of the day there is no real reason for Bitcoin to start taking off anyway.
  • After all, it is an asset that needs loose monetary policy to really get going, and the fact that we’ve had a couple of positive announcements over the last year has masked the fact that the financial system just isn’t set up for Bitcoin to go explosively upwards.

BTC/USD Forecast Today 07/02: Stalls in Consolidation (graph)

Keep in mind, most of the gains we have seen have been in reaction to the Wall Street ETF, and of course the fact that Donald Trump got elected, bringing in a more crypto friendly administration. However, they have yet to actually do anything, and I think the market is essentially in a “let’s wait and see” type of scenario. With that being the case, then I think you need to be very cautious but recognize that we are very much in a huge consolidation pattern.

Technical Analysis

The technical analysis for this pair is somewhat neutral, but the longer term outlook for Bitcoin is very bullish. That being said, there is the possibility that we enter a fairly negative month ahead, at least from a financial standpoint, not necessarily from a crypto standpoint. This could bring down the value of Bitcoin, but I suspect that it will only end up being a buying opportunity. The reasons I believe this are far beyond the scope of this article, but you can rest assured that if we do see some type of significant sell off here, I’ll be more than willing to start getting involved again at lower levels.

Ultimately, it looks like we continue to bounce around between the $90,000 level in the bottom, and the $110,000 level in the top. The $100,000 level continues to be “fair value”, and that’s something that we should probably keep in mind. I like buying dips and I have been accumulating, but I have not been putting a ton of money into this trade.

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EUR/USD Forecast: Euro Declines Before NFP – 07 February 2025

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  • During my daily analysis of major currency pairs, the EUR/USD pair is always the first place I go.
  • This gives me an approximate reading of what’s going on in the US Dollar Index, as the Euro is by far the most heavily traded currency against the Greenback.
  • What I find interesting is that traders are not willing to short the US dollar heading into the crucial Non-Farm Payroll announcement, which could tell us essentially what is about to happen.

EUR/USD Forecast Today 07/02: Declines Before NFP (Chart)

While that can always be a bit of a surprise, this point in time it’s very likely that traders will continue to favor the US dollar over the Euro, mainly because the divergence of the 2 central banks should continue to move things in that direction.

Central Banks

During the early hours on Thursday, the Bank of England met and cut by 25 basis points. They also suggested that they were going to continue to cut, and there may have been a bit of a “read through” into this pair. After all, if the United Kingdom is starting to cut rates, and the ECB has already suggested that they might be a bit loose going forward, all things point to the US dollar being a major beneficiary of this type of action. Ultimately, the US dollar is being sought after due to the fact that the interest rate differential almost certainly favors the United States, but we also have a lot of uncertainty out there are still, and it’s probably worth noting that Donald Trump is still very much in the mindset of placing tariffs on the European Union.

All of that being said, I do anticipate that we have a scenario that we stay somewhat range bound with more of a downward tilt. The 1.05 level above is a significant ceiling, just as the 50 Day EMA has offered quite a bit of resistance. Somewhere between those 2 levels, I would anticipate sellers jumping back into this market, barring some type of major shock. This assumes that we can rally at this point. If we were to break down from here, then I think the 1.0250 level could be the next target.

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USD/CAD Forecast: Faces Volatility – 07 February 2025

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  • At this point, the USD/CAD pair continues to attract a lot of attention, mainly due to the massive trade war that we just narrowly avoided between the United States and Canada.
  • However, the Canadian dollar was being hammered long before then, and I think we’ve got a situation where there are a lot of fundamental problems in Canada that will have to be addressed.
  • Whether or not we can take off to the upside again remains to be seen, but the best hope for the Canadian dollar is that something happens in the United States to change the strength of the US dollar.

USD/CAD Forecast Today 07/02: Faces Volatility (Chart)

Technical Analysis

The technical analysis of course is very bullish, despite the fact that the last couple of days have been an absolute whirlwind of drama and volatility. Or Donald Trump announced the 25% tariff against Canada, in the Canadians threatened in time, the US dollar rallied quite drastically. However, since the tariff war has been at least put on hold, we have seen the market ahead right back to the bottom of the range that it had been in for the previous month. Because of this, I think we are in a major inflection area, but I do not want to buy Canadian dollars regardless.

What I am waiting to see is whether or not the 1.43 level holds, as well as 1.42 level. There is a lot of noise in that area that I think could keep the market somewhat afloat, and of course we have the 50 Day EMA sitting right around the 1.43 area that comes into the picture as well. One thing is for sure though, the Friday session could be rather momentous, as the Non-Farm Payroll announcement comes out of the United States simultaneously as the Canadian Employment figures. In other words, this is going to be “Ground Zero” for the forex world at that point in time. I would be very cautious, but I am looking for some type of upward momentum to take advantage of.

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