More from BOE Pill: Chances of inflation getting embedded in UK is higher than Europe
More from BOE’s Pill saying:
Meanwhile UK CPI inflation is up at 10.5% with core inflation at 6.3%. The next CPI data will be released on February 15th
BOE Pill: We are prepared to do more to get inflation back to target
BOE Pill is speaking:
- We are prepared to do more to get inflation back to target
- Changing 2% inflation target would not be a great idea
The GBPUSD has moved to a new recession low and in the process as entered into the swing area between 1.1991 and 1.2010. Dip buyers can lean against the low of the range.
GBPUSD enters into a support area
BOC survey sees negative GDP growth in 2023 with rates falling 50 bps by year end
- Median GDP for 2023 at -0.4%
- GDP of +2.0% in 2024
- Accumulated savings and commodity prices are main upside risks
- Weaker housing and tightening financial conditions are main downside risks
- Median CPI forecast of 2.9% this year and 2.2% in 2024
- Median response for year-end BOC overnight rate is 4.00% (currently at 4.50%)
- Median response for Q4 2024 is 3.00%
- CAD/USD seen at 0.74 at year end (1.35)
- WTI crude oil seen at $85 at year end
- Full survey
The Bank of Canada does a quarterly survey of market participants and this offers a decent look at where the consensus is.
ECB’s Kazaks: There will be a 50 bps rate hike in March barring significant data shock
If they actually end up walking back on their 50 bps rate hike commitment, markets are going to have a field day and I can’t imagine there being a worse communication failure on the part of the ECB. Core inflation remains high and that will be reason enough to seal this move but this sort of language will continue to raise doubts about what comes after March.
Bank of England’s Mann is speaking on Monday, 6 February 2023 –
Coming up at 0840 GMT, which is 3.40am US ET:
- Catherine Mann, Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England
- speaks at Lamfalussy Lectures Conference ‘New dimensions of central banking in the post-covid era’
The calendar lists Mann as speaking twice today. I haven’t seen the second speech listed anywhere else so I suspect its going to be just the one speech today.
I’ve also seen some reports that Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill is to speak Monday. I don’t have that info, I have him speaking on Tuesday. I could be wrong though.
BOJ’s Kuroda: CPI sustainable at 2%, accompanied by wage growth, has not yet been achieved
Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda
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Japan has yet to achieve situation where inflation stably,
sustainably achieve 2% target accompanied by wage growth - There was no other
monetary policy means BOJ could have taken to achieve 2% inflation in
stable, sustained fashion
Kuroda is speaking in Japan’s parliament today.
Japan senior official says no truth that Amamiya sounded out for BOJ Gov position
more to come
Japan deputy chief cabinet secretary Isozaki statement:
- No truth to reports BOJ
Read this Term deputy gov Amamiya sounded out for the next BOJ governor job
ICYMI, this from earlier:
Speculation regarding BOJ Dep Gov Amamiya being approached to become the new gov. once Kuroda’s term expires on April 8:
USD/JPY down a little on this.