The USD has whipped around after the US jobs data

EURUSD:

In the first minute of trading after the US jobs report, the EURUSD traded a range of 1.0362 up to 1.0411.

Since then, the price moved to a low of 1.0348, and then bounced to a corrective high at 1.0376 and volatile trading.

Of significance technically in that corrective move higher is that 200-hour moving average comes in at 1.0376 equal to the corrective bounce level. That kept the sellers more in control. The current price is trading at 1.0356 which is now below the 100-hour moving average 1.03629.

So with the price low above the 100 and 200-hour moving averages the bias is tilting to the downside.

The next support target comes between 1.0330 and 1.0343 and would need to be broken to increase the bearish bias. Conversely, a move back above the 100 and 200-hour moving averages (above 1.0376), would tilt the buys back in the upward direction.

USDJPY:

The USDJPY reached a post-employment high at 152.45. The low reached 151.32.. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the low price reached the high of an old swing area between 151.198 and 151.32. Getting below that level would have traders looking toward the recent low price of 150.952 the Asian session today.

On the topside, the 100 and 200 day moving averages remains as the key barometer not only today but going forward. The 100-day moving average comes in at 152.60. The 200-day comes in at 152.73. As mentioned, the high price reached 152.45 within 15 pips of the lower of those moving averages. Staying below those moving averages keeps the sellers more in control.

GBPUSD:

THe volatility after the US jobs report had a high at 1.2492 and peaked within a swing area between 1.2474 to 1.2499. The price has moved lower and trades back near the 100 and 200-hour MAs at 1.2450 and 1.24316 respectively. The low reached 1.2419. The current price is at 1.2437 between the two moving averages.

Buyers and sellers are battling it out with buyers taking their shot and the sellers taking their shot too.

Prepare for the US jobs report with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD

The U.S. jobs report will be released at 8:30 AM ET, with EUR/USD and GBP/USD trading between their 100- and 200-hour moving averages and near 50% retracement levels—technically a neutral stance. Markets await the report as a catalyst. A stronger-than-expected print (above 170K jobs, 4.1% unemployment) could trigger downside moves, while a weaker outcome may fuel upside momentum.

USD/JPY is trending lower, having fallen below its 100- and 200-day MAs at 152.60 and 152.73. Currently at 152.037, bears are in control. A strong jobs report may push it back above key resistance, but absent that, the downtrend could continue.

In this video,I outline the key bias defining levels and the technical targets for each of the major pairs, Be aware and prepared with the roadmap through the minefields from the data shove.

Looking at other markets going into the release:

US stock futures are marginally lower

  • Dow industrial average futures are implying down -3.63 points (nearly unchanged)
  • S&P index futures are implying a decline of -4 pointS
  • NASDAQ index futures are implying a decline of -6 points

In the US debt market yields are mixed with the shorter end higher in the longer and lower

  • 2-year yield 4.232%, +2.7 basis points
  • 5-year yield 4.286%, +1.4 basis points
  • 10-year yield 4.440%, +0.2 basis points
  • 30-year yield 4.642%, -0.3 basis points

A snapshot of the other markets ahead of the release is showing:

  • Crude oil +$0.47 or 0.67% at $71.08
  • Gold plus $5.77 or 0.20% at $2861.50.
  • Silver -3 cents or -0.10% at $32.14.
  • Bitcoin plus $1100 and $97,690

It is not all about the US jobs report today as we are locked and loaded for the Canadian jobs report as well.

  • Employment change 25K estimate vs 90.9K last month
  • Unemployment rate 6.8% estimate vs 6.7% last month
  • Full time jobs last month rose 57.5K
  • Part-time jobs last month rose 33.5K
  • participation rate came in at 65.1%

A 10 AM, the University of Michigan preliminary estimate for February will be released:

  • Sentiment 71.1 versus 71.1 last month
  • Current condition 73.0 versus 74.0 last month
  • Expectations 70.0 versus 69.3 last month
  • 1-year inflation expectations came in at 3.3% last month
  • 5-year inflation expectations was at 3.2% last month

USDCAD Technical Analysis – We are back at the key support. Now what?

Fundamental
Overview

The USD continues to be under
pressure as the positive tariffs talks on Monday eased the trade war fears and
weighed on the greenback. In fact, trade war fears have been the only thing
keeping the bid under the USD as interest rate expectations and economic data
took the second place in importance.

As a reminder, the
repricing in rate cuts expectations reached the peak after the last US NFP
report and then the market returned into a dovish pricing following the benign
US inflation data (the market is still pricing roughly two rate cuts for 2025).

Today, we get the January
NFP and it could be another good report. That might lead to a short-term relief
rally for the US Dollar but as we’ve seen with the US Job Openings data, the
labour market continues to normalise and it’s not a source of inflationary
pressures anymore. So, the potential US Dollar rally might be faded.

That doesn’t mean that the
Fed will cut more than the two times projected for this year, but it also
doesn’t call for a more hawkish repricing yet. So, the path of least resistance
for the US Dollar (barring negative tariffs outcomes) might remain to the
downside as a more dovish path going forward looks more probable.

On the CAD side, the focus
has been entirely on the potential trade war with the US, so the data didn’t
matter much. Nonetheless, the positive talks on Monday and the pause in tariffs
gave the Loonie a strong boost with the pair falling back into the key 1.4280
support. The recent data from Canada has been pointing to gradual improvement
after the aggressive rate cuts which might now start to be reflected in the
exchange rate as the trade war fears abate.

USDCAD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

USDCAD Daily

On the daily chart, we can
see that USDCAD dropped all the way back to the key support
around the 1.4280 level. This is where the buyers will likely step in with a
defined risk below the support to position for a rally back into the highs. The
sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase
the bearish bets into new lows.

USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

USDCAD 4 hour

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor resistance zone around the middle of the range where
the price got rejected from a couple of times in the weeks. If we get a pullback
into that, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the
level to position for a break below the key support. The buyers, on the other
hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 1.4467
level next.

USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

USDCAD 1 hour

On the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much we can add here as we now have this mini-range between the 1.4280
support and the 1.4370 resistance. From a risk management perspective, it would
be much better to wait for the US NFP report as any technical setup can be
invalidated in a blink of an eye when the data gets released. The red lines
define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

Today we conclude the week with the Canadian
Employment data and the US NFP report.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – The focus turns to the US NFP report

Fundamental
Overview

The USD continues to be
under pressure as the positive tariffs talks on Monday eased the trade war
fears and weighed on the greenback. In fact, trade war fears have been the only
thing keeping the bid under the USD as interest rate expectations and economic
data took the second place in importance.

As a reminder, the
repricing in rate cuts expectations reached the peak after the last US NFP
report and then the market returned into a dovish pricing following the benign
US inflation data (the market is still pricing roughly two rate cuts for 2025).

Today, we get the January
NFP and it could be another good report. That might lead to a short-term relief
rally for the US Dollar but as we’ve seen with the US Job Openings data, the
labour market continues to normalise and it’s not a source of inflationary
pressures anymore. So, the potential US Dollar rally might be faded.

That doesn’t mean that the
Fed will cut more than the two times projected for this year, but it also
doesn’t call for a more hawkish repricing yet. So, the path of least resistance
for the US Dollar (barring negative tariffs outcomes) might remain to the
downside as a more dovish path going forward looks more probable.

On the GBP side, the BoE
yesterday cut
interest rates
by 25 bps as expected and we got a more dovish than expected
vote split with the known hawk member Mann even voting for a 50 bps cut.

The pound sold off
initially but then started to fade the weakness as the market focused on the
word “careful” that was added in the “gradual and careful approach to
the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate” line.

BoE’s
Bailey
then doubled down on that saying that it was deliberate because of
the uncertainty they are facing, so that brushed aside the more dovish expectations
for the rates path triggered by the vote split.

GBPUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

GBPUSD Daily

On the daily chart, we can
see that GBPUSD is trading near the key resistance
zone around the 1.25 handle. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in
with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop into the 1.20
handle. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking
higher to increase the bullish bets into the 1.28 handle next.

GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

GBPUSD 4 hour

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. If we get a
pullback into the trendline, the buyers will likely lean on the trendline
to position for a break above the resistance. The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into new
lows.

GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

GBPUSD 1 hour

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we are basically in the middle of nowhere. The only notable support
could be the higher low around the 1.2420 level where the buyers will look for
a bounce, while the sellers will look for a break.

From a risk management
perspective, it would be much better to wait for the US NFP report as any
technical setup can be invalidated in a blink of an eye when the data gets
released. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

Today we conclude the week with the US NFP
report.

EURUSD Technical Analysis – The greenback stays on the backfoot

Fundamental
Overview

The USD continues to be
under pressure as the positive tariffs talks on Monday eased the trade war
fears and weighed on the greenback. In fact, trade war fears have been the only
thing keeping the bid under the USD as interest rate expectations and economic
data took the second place in importance.

As a reminder, the
repricing in rate cuts expectations reached the peak after the last US NFP
report and then the market returned into a dovish pricing following the benign
US inflation data (the market is still pricing roughly two rate cuts for 2025).

Today, we get the January
NFP and it could be another good report. That might lead to a short-term relief
rally for the US Dollar but as we’ve seen with the US Job Openings data, the
labour market continues to normalise and it’s not a source of inflationary
pressures anymore. So, the potential US Dollar rally might be faded.

That doesn’t mean that the
Fed will cut more than the two times projected for this year, but it also
doesn’t call for a more hawkish repricing yet. So, the path of least resistance
for the US Dollar (barring negative tariffs outcomes) might remain to the
downside as a more dovish path going forward looks more probable.

On the EUR side, the ECB
recently cut
interest rates
by 25 bps as expected and overall we didn’t get anything new
from the event as the central bank remains data dependent regarding the pace
and magnitude of cuts The latest PMIs showed an encouraging rebound in activity and the
news of a peace deal in the Russia-Ukraine war started to gather momentum. That
should be positive for the economy.

EURUSD Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

EURUSD Daily

On the daily chart, we can
see that EURUSD opened lower on Monday following the tariffs over the weekend
but eventually bounced back strongly as positive talks led to an easing in
trade war fears. The price is now trading between the 1.0344 support
and the 1.0447 resistance. The buyers will look for a break higher to extend
the rally into the 1.06 handle, while the sellers will look for a break lower
to target the 1.0222 level next.

EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

EURUSD 4 hour

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent price action and the trading between the key
levels. There’s not much we can add here as buyers and sellers will lean into
those key levels or look for breakouts.

EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

EURUSD 1 hour

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor intraday resistance around the 1.04 handle. From a
risk management perspective, it would be much better to wait for the US NFP
report as any technical setup can be invalidated in a blink of an eye when the
data gets released. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we conclude the week with the US NFP
report.

The number 20 is important in technical analysis, and for some reasons.

Technical analysis is filled with numbers, patterns, and sequences that traders rely on for identifying trends, reversals, and breakouts. But among these, one number stands out repeatedly: 20.

From moving averages to Donchian Channels, Bollinger Bands, and even the way market participants perceive support and resistance, the number 20 plays a crucial role in price action and market structure. And as seen in the case of NVIDIA (NVDA), 20-week support recently played a critical role in the stock’s rebound.

NVDA stock finds support in the magic number 20 weekly bars

Why is the Number 20 So Important?

The prominence of 20 in technical analysis is not a coincidence. There are several underlying reasons why this number is widely used across different indicators and strategies:

1. The 20-Period Moving Average: A Universal Trend Filter

The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) or Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is commonly used as a key trend filter.

  • On daily charts, it represents approximately one month of trading data, making it ideal for measuring short-term trends.
  • On weekly charts, it covers roughly five months of trading, helping traders understand medium-term trends.
  • It is used in combination with other moving averages (e.g., 50, 200) to detect crossovers and trend shifts.

Many traders rely on the 20-SMA as dynamic support or resistance, as prices often bounce off this level in trending markets.

2. Donchian Channel: 20-Period Breakout System

The Donchian Channel, one of the oldest trend-following indicators, uses a 20-bar lookback period by default.

  • It measures the highest high and lowest low over the last 20 bars, identifying breakout points.
  • This was a key component of the Turtle Trading strategy, which focused on entering trades when price broke the 20-day high or low.

3. Bollinger Bands: 20-Period Basis Line

The popular Bollinger Bands indicator defaults to a 20-period moving average as its basis line. The upper and lower bands are set at two standard deviations away from this line, dynamically adjusting for market volatility.

Traders use the bands to:

  • Spot overbought and oversold conditions.
  • Identify squeeze patterns (low volatility preceding large moves).
  • Find breakout setups when price moves beyond the bands.

4. Candle Sequences: The 20-Bar Pattern

Candle formations and sequences often revolve around 20-bar periods:

  • 20-period highs and lows are frequently referenced in breakout strategies.
  • Mean reversion setups often use a 20-bar reference point for measuring overextensions.
  • Momentum traders look for price action signals forming around a 20-bar timeframe.

5. VWAP & Standard Deviation Levels

The Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) is another key technical tool where 20 plays a role:

  • Many institutional traders use VWAP deviations calculated over a 20-period window to assess price deviations.
  • 20-day VWAP levels serve as benchmarks for mean reversion strategies.

NVDA’s 20-Week Support: The Machines Know

As seen in the NVIDIA (NVDA) weekly chart, price recently rebounded from a key support level that aligned with the 20-week lookback range.

  • The stock found support exactly at the low of the last 20 weekly bars.
  • This suggests large institutional algorithms and traders recognized this level as an important buying zone.
  • The volume profile also confirms significant participation around this level, strengthening its reliability.

The Machines and the Number 20

High-frequency trading (HFT) algorithms and quant funds often rely on standardized lookback periods, and 20 is one of the most widely used. The consistency of 20 across different indicators suggests that market participants—especially institutions—factor this number into their decision-making models.

How Traders Can Use the Number 20

Given its significance, traders can apply the concept of 20 in multiple ways:

  1. Use the 20-SMA as a dynamic trend filter – Look for price action signals around this level.
  2. Watch for Donchian Channel breakouts – A 20-bar high or low can signal trend continuation.
  3. Trade Bollinger Band expansions and squeezes – The 20-period basis line is a key reference point.
  4. Observe VWAP deviations based on a 20-period rolling average – This helps detect price exhaustion.
  5. Analyze support and resistance levels based on 20-bar lookback ranges – Like NVDA’s recent weekly support zone.

A Simple Yet Powerful Concept, Look for 20

Okay, so it’s not really some magic but the truth is that you will see that principle arising in many aspects of technical analysis, patterns, how market moves, where machines come to buy or sell, etc. The number 20 is more than just a default setting in technical indicators—it’s a reflection of the market’s natural cycles and trader psychology. Whether it’s moving averages, breakout strategies, or support/resistance levels, the repeated appearance of 20 across different methodologies suggests that traders and machines alike respect its significance.

Next time you analyze a chart, take a closer look at the 20-bar period, and you might just uncover hidden insights that align with the way professional traders and algorithms view the market. And visit ForexLive.com 20 times a month to get some original views and perspectives. Who knows, maybe even more if we’ll do a good job. See ya soon.

Trade at your own risk. This article is for educational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.

Breaking the norm: Meta stock on epic 14-Day winning streak

Strong trends are

  • Fast
  • Directional, and
  • Tend to go farther than what traders expect.

Shares of Meta are exhibiting a strong upward trend, currently working on their 14th consecutive day of gains, marking a record for the stock. While this remarkable streak might suggest overbought conditions, recent trading action indicates a breakout above the upper boundary of a topside channel trendline. This breakout signals continued bullish momentum, making it unwise to attempt to pick a top just yet despite the extended rally.

The breakout level, around $705, now serves as a key support zone. As long as the price remains above this level, the bullish bias stays firmly in favor of buyers. Today, Meta shares reached a high of $718.90 and are currently trading near $714, maintaining a healthy buffer above the breakout point. If the price falls below $705 with momentum, it could prompt profit-taking or selling, with further downside targets at $700 and potentially $680, where sellers could gain additional confidence.

Meta’s current rally exemplifies the power of momentum in the stock market. Trends like these are difficult to reverse, especially for stocks experiencing such strong upward pressure. For now, traders should let the trend ride and only consider a shift in strategy if price action and technical levels, such as the breakout point, signal otherwise.

Also, understand that even if we do get a correction, they can be short-lived. Nevertheless, they may provide an opportunity to “lighten up” and redeploy the capital in the next winner/idea.

GBPUSD bounces after the BOE rate cut news runs its course

The GBPUSD experienced steady declines during the Asian session and ahead of the BOE rate decision. The Bank of England cut rates by 25 basis points, as widely expected, but the fact that two members voted for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut added to the bearish sentiment. This pushed the pair lower into a swing area between 1.23515 and 1.23759, where buyers found support and started to reverse the downward momentum.

The recovery gained traction, with the pair climbing towards the 100-hour moving average at 1.24269 and the 200-hour moving average at 1.24356, which now serve as key resistance levels. These technical levels are critical short-term barometers, and sellers are expected to lean against them, using stops above in case of a breakout. For the GBPUSD to sustain further upside momentum, a decisive move above these moving averages would be required.

For now, sellers appear to be attempting to maintain control and protect the bearish bias. If the price remains below these resistance levels, it reinforces the downward pressure, potentially leading to another test of the swing area. However, a break above the moving averages could signal a shift in sentiment and open the door for further upside probing.

BOE Bailey is expected to give a TV interview shortly.

The market now sees a May cut and a total of 64 basis points of cuts between now and the end of the year. That is up from about 58 basis points before the rate decision.

GBPUSD technicals

USDCHF rebounds after basing at swing area support yesterday/today.What next for the pair?

The USDCHF spiked higher on Monday but then began a steady descent through Tuesday and Wednesday. Yesterday’s low tested a key swing area between 0.8997 and 0.9011, where selling momentum slowed, and price action consolidated. In today’s early Asian session, the price failed to break below yesterday’s low, prompting a shift from sellers to buyers, leading to a move higher.

The price has now reached a swing area near 0.9058, serving as a short-term barometer ahead of key resistance levels: the 200-hour moving average at 0.9069 and the 100-hour moving average at 0.9081, which also coincides with the 50% retracement of the January 24 upswing. A move above these levels would strengthen bullish momentum.

For now, the current move appears to be a routine correction off support. Watch 0.9054 (the 61.8% retracement level) as a key threshold. Staying above this level supports continued upside probing, while a break below could reignite bearish momentum.

USDCHF technicals

USDCAD settles after fireworks at the start of the week. Price back in familiar territory.

The USDCAD has begun to stabilize following last week’s and this week’s significant volatility. The price initially surged higher on Monday, reacting to news of a 25% tariff announcement over the weekend. Mexico quickly negotiated a 30-day deal to meet President Trump’s requirements, followed by Canada taking similar steps, which triggered a sharp reversal in the USDCAD.

The momentum carried into yesterday, with the price dropping below the “Red Box” range—a range that defined trading from December through most of January. However, sellers failed to push the price below a key swing target between 1.4260 and 1.4270, prompting buyers to step in and drive the price back into the “Red Box,” signaling a return to neutrality.

Looking ahead, the level near 1.43687 has become a key pivot point (see green numbered circles on the chart below). The corrective high today stalled near this level before rotating lower, reinforcing its significance as a potential ceiling. A move below 1.43687 keeps sellers in control, while a break above this level could lead to further upside momentum for the pair.

On the downside, getting below 1.4290 and then 1.4260 are the key progressive steps to increase the bearish bias.

On the top side, get above 1.43687 and we could see rotation back toward the 200 hour moving average about 1.4426 currently. There would probably be some pause near 1.4400..

USDCAD technicals