BOJ April 2018 meeting – BOJ announce no change to monetary policy
Bank of Japan monetary policy decision and statement for March 2018
BOJ keeps monetary policy steady – as widely expected
- maintains short-term interest rate target at -0.1 pct
- maintains 10-year JGB yield target around zero pct
Decision on yield curve control made by 8-1 vote, board member Kataoka dissents
BOJ removes phrase
on expected timing for hitting price goal
BOJ quarterly report:
- Japan’s economy expected to continue expanding moderately
- Momentum for hitting price goal sustained but lacking steam
- Inflation likely to accelerate towards 2 pct as output gap improves, inflation expectations heighten
- Risks to the price outlook skewed to downside
- Risks to economy balanced for FY2018 but skewed to downside for FY2019
Core CPI expected +1.8 pct in FY2019/20 vs +1.8 pct projected in January
- Japan core CPI expected +1.8 pct in FY2020/21
- Japan core CPI expected +1.3 pct in FY2018/19 vs
+1.4 pct projected in January
BOJ deletes mention of time frame for price target in
outlook report
Risks to economy are roughly balanced for fiscal
2018
- risks to economy in fiscal 2019 are to downside
- no big change in price forecast for fiscal 2019
- there are downside risks to prices
- inflation expectations pose both downside and upside risks
- consumer inflation moving around 1 pct
- inflation expectations moving sideways
- inflation expectations likely to heighten ahead and gradually converge towards 2 pct
- impact of sales tax hike next year among risks to economic outlook
Kataoka says need to buy JGBs so yield for duration
of 10 years or longer falls further
- says BOJ should clarify it will ease
further if domestic factors delay achievement of price target
BOJ’s median real GDP forecast for fiscal 2019/20 at +0.8 pct vs +0.7 pct projected in January
- median real gdp forecast for fiscal 2020/21 at +0.8 pct
- median real gdp forecast for fiscal 2018/19 at +1.6 pct vs +1.4 pct projected in January
Quick headlines via Reuters
Well, cast your eye over those quick headline takes … and if you are thinking like me it looks like the BOJ has managed to get itself even more dovish …
- REMOVES TIMEFRAME FOR PRICE GOAL
- downside risks for the economy and inflation
Yeah … check out the bit I put in CAPS ….
REMOVES
TIMEFRAME
FOR
PRICE
GOAL
Sheesh …. have they given up now? …. and … Fuggedaboud the talk of exit …
—
Japan’s economy is not going along too badly at all.
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