The pair touches a high of 0.7717 on the day
here, and yesterday’s trading was no different. The pair tried a break to close above the 0.7700 level but ultimately fell short towards the end of the day.
retail sales data earlier today could be the catalyst to help give the aussie a lift to finally break away from the recent ping pong action between the 0.7650 to 0.7700 levels.
AUD/USD is not quite in the clear to the upside just yet though, the recent pattern of lower highs and lower lows is still in tact. But the consolidation phase near the lows and the fact that continued trade wars rhetoric hasn’t hurt the currency over the last two days should provide some encouragement to buyers.
The key to any upside move in my view will come down to a test of the 100-day MA (red line) and the 200-day MA (blue line). The pair failed in a bid to break above the former in March trading before falling to new lows for the year.
The RBA decision did little to help aid the aussie in terms of direction, so the next key catalyst to look out for is the US jobs report on Friday.
But if the aussie starts to slip later in the day despite positive retail sales, you just have to tell yourself “old habits die hard” or if something can’t rally on good news, then… you know what comes next.