AUD traders – Australia retail sales data due today – preview (is there an ‘upside risk’?)
Australian retail sales data is due at 0130GMt on 04 June 2018. The median of economists estimates (the ‘expected’) is
- +0.3% m/m
- while the previous was flat at 0.0%
Preview via NBA:
- There’s quite a wide range of forecasts, from -0.1% (NAB’s estimate based on mapping from the NAB Cashless Retail Sales index), to a high estimate of 0.7%, though most are pegged at modest growth of 0.2-0.3%.
- The NAB Cashless Index was weaker in April, down 0.6% and the weakest result since December 2017 and arguably more concerning given the weak December result was payback after the strong November print buoyed by iPhone X sales.
- Oil prices have risen in recent months and there were significant anecdotal reports that warm weather restrained consumer spending
And, via ANZ:
- We expect another weak result (-0.1% m/m) for retail trade in April, following the disappointing flat outcome in March.
- With house price growth continuing to soften, and higher petrol prices eroding household budgets, we expect the consumer to remain under pressure.
- There is an upside risk around the early Easter date, which may have depressed March sales relative to April.
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